US: "*TPG IN TALKS TO BUY ARK DATA CENTRES FOR $5B VALUATION: FT" - BBG

Oil is higher again during Monday’s APAC trading as hopes fade of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal, meanwhile Iran is sticking to its demands. Trump said that negotiations are to continue this week and Secretary Bessent said that Iranian shipborne crude is running out thus pressuring Iran to talk. With Saudi-Houthi hostilities continuing, an imminent solution to shipments from the Middle East remains elusive.

• Brent is 2.6% higher at $107.02/bbl, there have been a few brief breaks above $107. The bull trigger is at $109.97, 11 September high.
• WTI is up 1.8% to $94.10/bbl, close to the intraday high at $94.33. The bull trigger is at $101.69, 15 September high.
• Iran’s proposal is apparently similar to June’s MoU with it opening the Strait in exchange for the US ending its blockade, according to Bloomberg.
• Trump is considering a US diesel export ban and apparently asked Ukraine again not to target Russian refineries. It seems the ban idea is to boost votes ahead of midterm elections but the actual impact on domestic prices and supply in certain countries remains uncertain. The UK is concerned as around one-sixth of its diesel is from the US, according to Politico.
• Unlike crude, gasoil is down today (-0.9%) but up 8.7% in September.
• Later the Fed’s Bowman, Cook and Barkin speak as well as the ECB’s Lagarde, Machado, Elderson and BoE’s Ramsden. US Dallas Fed September manufacturing prints.

China markets are weaker to start the week, the CSI 300 off over 2%, the index falling to fresh lows back to Sep 2025. Returning South Korean markets are down over 2%. Indian markets are also weaker, but moves elsewhere aren't large. US equity futures are weaker, led by the tech side. Eminis last off around 0.35%, while Nasdaq futures are off 0.70%. Higher oil, with Brent up 2.5%, and rebounding UST yields (as the Hormuz impasse continues between US-Iran) is impacting sentiment and spilling over to US equity futures. 

• The CSI 300 was last putting the index back around 4345, which is fresh lows back to early Sep 2025. The Chinext index is down over 4%, leaving this index back near early April 2026 lows. Earlier data showed China industrial profits up 4.2%y/y for Aug, versus a 11.2% gain prior. This is the softest rise since Nov's -13.1% print last year.  In YTD terms, we were 15.7%, versus 17.6% in July. The data continues to highlight the challenging economic backdrop for China. Also note: "Chinese chip stocks drop after a report that China may allow purchases of Nvidia’s new chips, with broader tech sentiment was also hit by a selloff in optical stocks following a proposed US transceiver bill." - BBG
• South Korean markets have returned, after being out for the final two days of last week. The Kospi is back under 7000, off 2.15% currently. Tech stocks were mostly higher in Friday trade, but sit off recent highs in terms of the SOX/MSCI IT indices. Via BBG as well: For SK Hynix, media reports of a potential listing of its US subsidiary added to worries over the firm’s complex ownership structure."
• Indian markets are down over 1% for the Sensex and NIFTY. The higher oil backdrop a likely headwind in the first part of trade today.
• In South East Asia, most markets are lower. Indonesia is down around 1%. 

JGB futures sit at 124.20, -.15 versus settlement levels in latest dealings. Earlier cycle lows were at 124.05, with 124.00 a downside target, followed by 123.6 (a technical target). We are oversold per RSI (14), but firm downtrend risks persist. Sep 18 highs were 125.49 in terms of upside resistance. The regional/UST futures skew is lower on the back of higher oil futures amid the on-going US-Iran impasse over Hormuz. Cash UST yields are rebounding (+2-5bps led by the front end). 

• Cash JGB yields are higher, but led by the front end as well. The 2y is closing in on a 2% upside test, last near 1.98% (up close to 4.5bps so far today). 10-40yr tenors are up around 2bps at this stage, leaving curves with a modest flattening bias. The 2/30s were last +113bps, against recent highs of +117bps.
• We had the BoJ minutes out from the July policy meeting out earlier. These are quite dated now, but show a clear bias to tighten further, amidst still easy financial conditions and rising confidence in the achieving the 2% inflation target. Uncertainty remained though around the pace of tightening.
• The PPI services print for Aug rose 3.7%y/y, slightly above the 3.6% forecast. This takes the y/y rise back to 2024 highs.  On Thursday, the Q3 Tankan is out, then on Friday the Tokyo CPI for Sep.
• On the supply front, tomorrow's 40yr debt sale will be the main focus point this week.