LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, Leading Index, Fed Speak
Jun-22 10:13
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Jun-22 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (262k, 259k)
- Jun-22 0830 Continuing Claims (1.775M, 1.785M)
- Jun-22 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (0.07, -0.10)
- Jun-22 0830 Current Account Balance (-$206.8B, -$218.0B)
- Jun-22 0955 Fed Gov Bowman open remarks Fed Listens event, text, no Q&A
- Jun-22 1000 Fed Chairman Powell semi-ann testimony Senate Banking Comm
- Jun-22 1000 Cleveland Fed Mester on economic/policy outlook, policy summit
- Jun-22 1000 Existing Home Sales (4.28M, 4.25M); MoM (-3.4%, -0.7%)
- Jun-22 1000 Leading Index (-0.6%, -0.8%)
- Jun-22 1100 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (-1, -5)
- Jun-22 1130 US Tsy $70B 4W, $60B 8W Bill auctions
- Jun-22 1300 US Tsy $19B 5Y TIPS re-open (91282CGW5)
- Jun-22 1630 Richmond Fed Barkin, risk mgmt conf, no text
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NOK: USD/NOK Nears Key Resistance on Sliding Inflation Expectations
May-23 10:11
- NOK remains the poorest performer in G10, with USD/NOK narrowing in on the Sept'22 high of 11.0111 - a break above which puts the pair at the best levels since the 2020 pandemic.
- Moves follow the Q2 expectations this morning that showed a marked step-down in inflation expectations for this year (4% from 6%) and over the 2-3y horizon (4.3% from 5.4%) - the retrace of inflation expectations provides further evidence that price pressures among households may have peaked - representing the first step down in expectations since 2019.
- Norges Bank's Q1 MPR continues to see inflation pulling lower in the coming months - meaning today's pullback in expectations may not be outside of policymaker forecast. Focus remains on the Jun 22 rate decision and fresh set of projections, at which the bank are seen upping their rate path for the coming few months.
Figure 1: Norges Bank Q1 MPR Inflation Expectations
USD: Further upside momentum for the Dollar
May-23 10:11
- Another push higher for the Dollar keeps G10s under pressure.
- The NOK is now down 0.89%, and the worst performer, but GBP, EUR, AUD, HKD, SGD, CNH, SEK are all testing their respective lows.
- Next support in Cable is at 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10 and a key support.
- Next support for the EUR will be at 1.0760 Low May 19.
GILTS: 10yr Yield eye the 4.15% level
May-23 10:07
- UK 10yr Yield 4.15% is getting close, now would equate closer to 97.15.
Further out, reference 97.31:
- 4.20% = 96.68.
- 4.25% = 96.20.
