OUTLOOK: Thursday Data Calendar, Weekly Claims, Bond Auction

The Republican-leaning states of Nebraska and West Virginia will hold primary elections tomorrow for the United States House of Representatives and Governor's mansion. If endorsees of former President Donald Trump win tomorrow then Trump's claims of influence over the GOP become more credible.

• Last week Trump claimed victory in the first genuinely competitive primary contest of the midterm season involving a Trump backed candidate - JD Vance in Ohio - but the rest of his endorsed candidates have faced little threat or open primaries.
• West Virginia 2nd District
  • Likely to be another tight contest between Trump endorsee Alex Mooney and David McKinley, endorsed by West Virginia Governor Jim Justice.
  • The two candidates are incumbents facing each another due to a redrawn congressional map and winner is likely to take a win the seat in November.
• Nebraska Governor
  • Trump-backed Charles Herbster also has a potentially competitive primary with University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen, endorsed by the departing Republican governor Pete Ricketts and lobby group the Farm Bureau.
  • The seat is also likely to be a comfortable GOP victory in November.
• Nebraska 2nd District
  • The 2nd district has been held by Republican Don Bacon since 2017 but is a potentially competitive race in November.
  • The Democratic Party primary is the one to watch here. State Senator Tony Vargas is in a tight race with mental health practitioner Alisha Shelton.

Italy to sell the following at May 12 auction:

• E1.50-2.00bln of 3Y 1.20% Aug-25 BTP
• E3.25-3.75bln of 7Y 2.80% Jun-29 BTP (new)
• E0.75-1.00bln of 30Y 3.45% Mar-48 BTP

• RES 4: 121-24 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 122-12+ High Apr 4
• RES 2: 121-09 High Apr 14 and a reversal point
• RES 1: 119-17/120-18+ 20-day EMA / High Apr 27
• PRICE: 118-09+ @ 16:33 BST May 9
• SUP 1: 117-08+ Intraday low
• SUP 2: 116-28 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 116-20 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 116.00 Round number support

Treasuries remain bearish and traded to a fresh trend low Monday. This confirms a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that recent corrections have tended to be shallow and this also clearly highlights current bearish market sentiment. Sights are on 116-28 next, the 0.764 projection of the Mar 7 - 28 - 31 price swing. Key short-term resistance is 120-18+, Apr 27 high.