GILTS: The Trendline in Yield holds
May-01 12:56
- The highlight in the UK 10yr Yield is still eyed at the April and the 2025 low at 4.363%, but so far the futures contract has lacked impetus right and the Yield is finding support right on the Trendline.
- The worst than expected IJC is keeping Bonds elevated, but more focus will be on the US ISM Mfg and its Components a little later, always a potential Market mover.
Today, reference 93.84:
- 4.363% = 94.35.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg)
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MNI: US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +5.3% V YR AGO MO
Apr-01 12:55
- MNI: US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +5.3% V YR AGO MO
- US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +4.8% WK ENDED MAR 29 V YR AGO WK
EQUITIES: BNP put spread
Apr-01 12:49
BNP (19th Dec) 76/60ps, sold at 6.1 in 2.5k.
INFLATION: EUR 5Y5Y Inflation Swaps Back To Lowest Since Fiscal Shift
Apr-01 12:42
- As noted earlier, Eurozone STIR markets have reversed the hawkish reaction seen on yesterday’s Bloomberg ECB sources piece, aided in part by the Washington Post’s report on potential for 20% tariffs as part of broader concerns ahead of tomorrow’s reciprocal tariffs announcement.
- Yesterday’s hawkish reaction helped stop what had been a modest rise in 5Y5Y inflation swaps (~2bps to 2.125%), although currently at ~2.10% they have reversed that climb along with today’s rates rally.
- It leaves 5Y5Y inflation swaps at what would be the lowest close since the Mar 4 German and EU fiscal announcements, having been at 2.05-2.075% in the days shortly beforehand.
- Those fiscal plans saw idiosyncratic adjustments in EU long-term inflation swaps, narrowing the US-EUR spread from levels closer to 40bps to 16bp on Mar 5. Daily gyrations have more recently shifted back to seeing greater correlation with those in the US though, with a US-EU spread at 30bps +/- 3bps over the past week and a half.
