ASIA FX: THB Outperformance Continues, IDR Rebounds
Sep-12 2025 05:38
In SEA FX, the bias has been for softer USD levels, with the stand outs so far today being THB and IDR. USD/THB has fallen more than 1.6% so far this week, the best performer within USD/Asia bloc over this period.
- USD/THB last tracked near 31.67, down around 0.6% and close to recent lows at 31.61. Catch up to weaker USD trends from Thursday, along with firmer gold prices have been THB supports today. Via BBG: "Thai gold demand, excluding central bank purchase, is set to climb 10% this year to 53.7 tons, according to the Thai Futures Exchange. Demand in the first half jumped 21% to 20.7 tons, World Gold Council data show." A break sub 31.50/60 could ultimately see 31.00 targeted, levels last seen in the first half of 2021.
- USD/IDR is back under 16400, up around 0.45% so far today in IDR terms. This brings us back close to the 20-day EMA support point, but greater focus is likely to rest around the 200-day EMA support zone (16261). Cross asset moves are likely helping IDR sentiment. The continued move lower in US real yields is a positive, although USD/IDR remains quite elevated relative to such trends. Focus will remain on the local fiscal outlook, as new FinMin Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa announced late yesterday a review of the 2026 budget.
- USD/MYR is down, last near 4.2100, up close to 0.25% in ringgit terms. We are still above important support around 4.2000.
- USD/PHP is down around 0.20%, close to 57.10 in latest dealings. This leaves the pair in recent ranges.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Aug-13 2025 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14-Aug | 0700 | Q2 | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 18-Aug | 1530 | --- | DMO likely to publish FQ3 consultation agenda |
| 20-Aug | 0001 | Aug | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 20-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Consumer inflation report / PPI |
| 21-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Aug | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 21-Aug | 1100 | Aug | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 22-Aug | 0001 | Aug | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 22-Aug | 0700 | Jul | Retail Sales |
| 23-Aug | 1725 | --- | BOE Bailey at Jackson Hole |
| 26-Aug | 0001 | Aug | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 26-Aug | - | --- | DMO to hold FQ3 consultations with investors / GEMMs |
| 27-Aug | 1100 | Aug | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 29-Aug | 0730 | --- | DMO to release FQ3 (Oct-Dec) issuance ops calendar |
| 01-Sep | 0930 | Aug | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 01-Sep | 0930 | Jul | BOE Lending to Individuals / M4 |
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Aug-13 2025 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 13-Aug | 0700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 13-Aug | 0800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 0745 | FR | HICP (f) |
| 14-Aug | 1000 | EU | IP / GDP 2nd Est / Employment |
| 18-Aug | 1000 | EU | Trade Balance |
| 19-Aug | 0900 | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 20-Aug | 0700 | DE | PPI |
| 20-Aug | 1000 | EU | HICP (f) |
| 21-Aug | 0815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 0830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 0900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 21-Aug | 1000 | EU | Construction Production |
| 21-Aug | 1500 | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 22-Aug | 0700 | DE | GDP (f) |
| 22-Aug | 0745 | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 22-Aug | 1000 | EU | Negotiated Wage Growth |
CHINA: Country Wrap: Plans Afoot to Subsidize Consumer Loans
Aug-13 2025 05:17
- China plans to subsidize interest payments on eligible personal consumer loans from Sept. 2025 to Aug. 2026, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance. Subsidy applies to loans under 50,000 yuan for consumption, and designated big-ticket items over 50,000 yuan — including autos, education, and healthcare. China’s consumer loan interest subsidy program is expected to support a recovery in lending, especially for operating loans in the consumer services sector, while benefiting major banks and enhancing their market share, according to analysts from brokerages including China Merchants Securities. (source BBG)
- resident Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva have expressed their opposition to unilateralism and protectionism, and pledged to promote the greater development of bilateral ties. In a phone conversation between the two heads of state on Tuesday, Xi told Lula that China is ready to work with Brazil to set an example of unity and self-reliance among major countries of the Global South, and to jointly build a more just world and a more sustainable planet. (source China Daily)
- China and Hong Kong markets are also higher. The CSI 300 last around +0.90%. The HSI is up around +1.90%, with the tech sub index +2.35%.
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1350 Per USD; Estimate 7.1768
- Ten year government bond yields are modestly lower with the 10-year at 1.72%
