US TSYS: Tension Flares, Trump Warns Iran After Chopper Downing, CPI up Next
Jun-09 19:40
- Treasuries look to finish near midsession highs after some two-way geo-pol related volatility Tuesday. Sky News Arabia reported that the draft agreement has been sent to the American side for its review, with confirmation that the draft is preliminarily acceptable to the American administration.
- However, crude bounced off session lows after President Trump posted on Truth Social to say he would respond to the Iranian downing of a US helicopter, threatening to raise tensions. While it may contradict Trump’s statements earlier of progress to a deal, the US may think it can take some form of limited action without completely derailing the talks.
- Weekly ADP private employment increased an average 29.0k per week in the four weeks to May 23, slightly moderating from 30.5k in the prior week (a new value for the weekly series but one that chimed with the monthly series released instead that week) and an unrevised 35.75k the week before that.
- Focus on CPI tomorrow morning, inflation expected to moderate to a still elevated pace in May, with MNI unrounded consensus pointing to 0.51% M/M for headline CPI and 0.23% M/M for core CPI. It should see headline CPI jump further to 4.2% Y/Y with a risk of 4.3% (either strongest since Apr 2023) whilst core CPI would see a more modest acceleration to 2.8-2.9% Y/Y (strongest since Sep 2025).
- TYU6 trades +5.5 after the bell to 109-06.5 (108-27.5 low). Resistance to watch is 110-04, the 50-day EMA. The bear trigger lies at 108-08+, the May 19 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
- Today's 3Y Note sale (91282CQV6) tailed slightly: 4.192% high yield vs. 4.190% WI; 2.64x bid-to-cover over the 5-auction average of 2.616x.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
MNI: CHINA APR EXPORTS +14.1% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.4% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
May-09 02:48
- CHINA APR EXPORTS +14.1% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.4% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
- CHINA APR IMPORTS +25.3% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +20.0% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
- CHINA APR TRADE SURPLUS +$84.82 BLN VS MEDIAN +$85.10 BLN
MNI: CHINA APR EXPORTS +9.8% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS
May-09 02:46
- CHINA APR EXPORTS +9.8% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS
- CHINA APR IMPORTS +20.6% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS
- CHINA APR TRADE SURPLUS +CNY585.7 BLN: CUSTOMS
MNI: CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY500 MLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPO SAT
May-09 01:27
- CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY500 MLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPO SAT
