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House Republican leadership have teed up key votes at 13:30 ET 18:30 BST on the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act and the budget blueprint from the GOP's USD$95 billion defence-focused reconciliation package. If the NDAA passes, it will be merged with elements of President Donald Trump's voter ID bill (SAVE America Act) and handed to the Senate. 

• The budget resolution will be the trickiest vote for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), with Rep Thomas Massie (R-KY) declaring himself a ‘no’: “It’s a slush fund for the unauthorized Iran war with a payoff to farmers who are suffering from fuel and fertilizer price hikes due to the war...” He said.
• The budget resolution and NDAA, along with a short-term measure to fund the government which passed yesterday, face an uncertain future in the Senate after Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) rejected Johnson's partisan approach to government funding, suggesting such a strategy would run up against unanimous Democratic opposition in the Senate.
• Thune indicated he wouldn’t advance the House’s budget resolution until the Senate figures out a government funding solution, saying he would instead put a bipartisan government funding measure on the floor before the August recess. The implied probability of a government shutdown in October remains elevated at roughly 50%, despite passage of the House funding bill, per Polymarket.
• Republicans pushed the NDAA to the right yesterday, with the House Rules Committee approving 320 amendments as the usually bipartisan Pentagon bill increasingly becomes a vehicle for partisan policy riders.

Figure 1: Government Shutdown by October 1

Source: Polymarket

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• the 3.10% Aug-31 OLO (ISIN: BE0000368770)
• the 3.00% Jun-33 OLO (ISIN: BE0000357666)
• the 3.10% Jun-35 OLO (ISIN: BE0000363722)

• +9,500 SFRZ6 96.18/96.31/96.43/96.56 call condors, 2.75 ref 95.865