IRAN: Supreme Leader To Deliver Speech 'Shortly'-State Media

Today sees multiple Fed speakers on the calendar, including Bostic, Jefferson and Logan at an Atlanta Fed conference on financial intermediation. We put most focus on ’26 voters Logan and then Kashkari today for their first appearances since the May 6-7 FOMC meeting. Logan’s last comments only just came after the partial tariff pause back on Apr 9 and of course both will have preceded the de-escalation in US-China trade policy on May 12. 

• 0830ET – Bostic (non-voter) opening remarks at conference on financial intermediation. He told a Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast interview on May 14, published May 16, that he still sees just one rate cut this year amid uncertainty. The recent de-escalation in US-China trade tensions has only changed his outlook "a little".
• 0845ET – Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) gives keynote remarks before moderated discussion with Bostic (text + Q&A). He said May 14 that he sees Fed policy well positioned to respond in a timely way amidst higher risks to both sides of the mandate. He’s watching for signs of the economy weakening in the hard data.
• 0845ET – NY Fed’s Williams (voter) in moderated discussion at MBA event (Q&A only). His May 9 prepared remarks focused on central bank credibility - the bedrock of central banking is anchored inflation expectations - before subsequent Q&A and a BBG TV appearance suggested a similar stance to Powell, especially re there appearing to be no rush to cut rates.
• 1315ET – Logan (’26 voter) gives remarks and moderates panel at financial intermediation conference (text). Her last comments of note came on Apr 10 with a characteristically hawkish outlook: "For now, I believe the stance of monetary policy is well positioned"... "To  sustainably achieve both of our dual-mandate goals, it will be important to keep any tariff-related price increases from fostering more persistent inflation." A sustained burst of inflation could lead households and businesses to expect further price increases, especially following the persistently elevated inflation in recent years.
• 1330ET – Kashkari (’26 voter) in moderated discussion at U.Minnesota (Q&A only). He said Apr 22 that tariffs are at least somewhat inflationary and the Fed cannot allow inflation expectations to became unanchored. He’s not seeing evidence of widespread layoffs and noted that federal job cuts aren’t making a big dent in the economy. However, he added Apr 24 that he’s worried that enough uncertainty may cause layoffs and that the frequency of Washington announcements is a challenge.
• 1445ET – Bostic (non-voter) on Bloomberg TV

Bullet continued: The EU will formally adopt a 17th round of Russia sanctions at an EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels on May 20, targeting Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ and sanctions circumvention. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Friday that a more punitive package targeting Russia’s banking and hydrocarbon sectors is being drafted. A German government spokesperson said Chancellor Friedrich Merz is "working with the US and European partners on new sanctions," per Reuters.  

• US Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) has a 'veto-proof majority' in the Senate for a package of “hard-hitting primary and secondary sanctions against Russia and actors supporting Russia’s aggression”. Co-sponsor Senator Richard Blumenthal said, “It’s supported by European allies, Ukraine, and nearly 80 Senators, evenly bipartisan.”
• Graham said on April 1: “These sanctions would be imposed if Russia refuses to engage in good faith negotiations for a lasting peace with Ukraine [or engages in new aggression]." Graham notes that in addition to primary/secondary sanctions, "The legislation also imposes a 500 percent tariff on imported goods from countries that buy Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products.”
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated to NBC yesterday that the outcome of today’s Trump-Putin call will likely determine if the Senate pursues sanctions: “We will see what happens when both sides get to the table. President Trump has made it very clear that if President Putin does not negotiate in good faith that the United States will not hesitate to up the Russia sanctions along with our European partners,”

US President Donald Trump will speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin at 10:00 ET 15:00 BST. Trump is also expected to hold a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The calls are likely to determine if Washington joins the EU in new punitive sanctions on Russia.

• Trump’s negotiator Steve Witkoff told ABC yesterday: “The president is determined to get something done here … If he can’t do it, then nobody can.”
• The call comes after the first direct talks between Ukraine and Russia since 2022 failed to deliver significant progress toward a ceasefire, in Istanbul on Friday. A Ukrainian official told AP the Russian delegation "deliberately wants to throw nonstarters on the table in order to walk away...”
• Yesterday, Kyiv reported that Russia launched its largest drone attack on Ukraine since the start of the war. Putin told state television reporter Pavel Rubin: “We have enough forces and resources to bring what was started in 2022 to a logical ending, with the result necessary for Russia,”
• TASS reports that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Saturday that Russia will prepare and deliver a list of ceasefire conditions to Ukraine, adding that an in-person meeting between Putin and Trump is “certainly necessary.”
• Russia’s lead negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said during talks with Ukraine in Istanbul that Russia is willing to continue fighting “however long it takes” to win, adding that "Russia fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” per The Economist.