ISRAEL: Success Of Iran Ceasefire Could Hinge On IDF Actions In Lebanon

The nascent ceasefire between Iran and the US remains in an extremely fragile state. As noted a short time ago (IRAN: Pakistan Urges Respect For Iran Ceasefire Ahead Of Islamabad Talks), "Ceasefire violations are common in the early hours of a new agreement. [...] The Iran ceasefire violations may be more frequent as Iran's fractured military leadership has made regional command operationally independent from Tehran." 

• As such, the actions of the third major actor in the conflict - Israel - will prove crucial. Iranian responses to the ceasefire have emphasised the importance that the ceasefire not only include attacks on Iran, but the ongoing Israeli operations against its proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Over the past six weeks, the Israeli Defence Forces have launched a major miltiary campaign against Hezbollah, which has seen a swathe of southern Lebanon forcibly evacuated by the IDF in order to establish a 'buffer zone' to protect northern Israel from Hebollah rocket attacks.
• While PM Benjamin Netanyahu's office has said that he welcomes the Pakistan-brokered deal between the US and Iran, a statement has said that 'The two-weeks ceasefire does not include Lebanon', meaning Israel will continue its operations against Hezbollah. It remains to be seen whether US President Donald Trump can exert the requisite pressure on Netanyahu to get Israel to wind down its operations in Lebanon, or alternatively if Iran proves willing to stick by the ceasefire even if Israel's operations in Lebanon continue.
• Predictions market site Polymarket currently shows a 46% implied probability that Israel and Hezbollah reach a ceasefire deal by end-month, down from a peak of 92% in the immediate aftermath of the Iran ceasefire announcement. 

Chart 1. Predictions Market, Implied Probability of Israel/Hezbollah Ceasefire by Month-End, %