US TSYS: Strong Tsy Curve Twist Steepening on '27 FOMC Schedule Change

• Treasuries see-sawed weaker Monday, look to finish off session/new cycle lows (TYZ6 104-08, yld 5.2719%) as crude pared early highs ((WTI appr $96.50/bbl) as US/Iran officials alternately announced successful peace discussions only to deny them later in the session:
• "U.S. official to Al Jazeera: Trump is ready to ease sanctions on Iran and release its frozen assets in exchange for progress on the nuclear file - Al Jazeera. Followed by Bloomberg headline: "REPORTS OF IRANIAN FLEXIBILITY IN NUCLEAR TALKS FALSE: PRESS TV".
• The Dallas Fed's Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for September was strong in both the headline reading and the details, building on August's strength. While the general business activity index dipped to 9.8 from 11.6 prior, it beat the 7.8 expected, and August's had been an 18-month high. But as the report put it, "price and wage pressures increased broadly".
• Fed Governor Cook implied she could support further rate hikes in a speech Monday: "looking ahead, I will consider what policy rate may be needed to continue to guide inflation down to our target.
• Core PCE is seen rising 0.27% M/M (range 0.23-0.32) in August after what’s currently 0.25% M/M in July. This month also includes annual revisions and in particular telegraphed changes in source data for three categories which have had an outsized impact on core PCE over the past year.
• Look ahead: RBA's rate announcement tomorrow - expected 25bp hike bringing rates to 4.6%, highest in 15 years. Additionally, Canadian GDP, US consumer confidence and JOLTS jobs data are all due. Markets will then look forward to US PCE and NFP as key event risk later in the week.

 "*REPORTS OF IRANIAN FLEXIBILITY IN NUCLEAR TALKS FALSE: PRESS TV" -bbg
"*IRAN'S PRESS TV CITES INFORMED SOURCE ON IRANIAN POSITION"

• RES 4: 0.7310 1.00 proj of the Mar 30 - May 6 - Jun 30 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7278 High May 6 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.7238 High Sep 09 and a S/T bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.7075/0.7108 Low Sep 16 / 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.7017 @ 16:49 BST Sep 28
• SUP 1: 0.7004 Low Sep 25 
• SUP 2: 0.6984 Low Aug 3
• SUP 3: 0.6953 76.4% retracement of the Jun 30 - Sep 9 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.6922 Low Jul 29  

Last week’s sharp sell-off in AUDUSD strengthens a short-term bear cycle. The breach of both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs undermines the recent bull theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6953 next, the 76.4% retracement point of the Jun 30 - Sep 9 bull leg. Initial firm resistance is at 0.7108, the 20-day EMA. A move through this average would be a bullish development.