EQUITIES: Stoxx600 Winners and Losers - NVIDIA is in focus Tonight

Of note:

EURUSD 6.94bn at 1.1350/1.1450.

GBPUSD 1.58bn at 1.3300/1.3350.

AUDUSD 1.02bn at 0.6900 (wed).

EURUSD 3.33bn at 1.1400/1.1415 (thu).

USDJPY 3.82bn at 165.00 (thu).

USDCNY 1.13bn at 6.7000 (thu).

USDCAD 2.75bn at 1.4100 (fri).

• EURUSD: 1.1350 (685mln), 1.1360 (1.3bn), 1.1375 (1.29bn), 1.1400 (1.48bn), 1.1423 (289mln), 1.1430 (561mln), 1.1435 (396mln), 1.1445 (235mln), 1.1450 (696mln).
• GBPUSD: 1.3300 (603mln), 1.3325 (467mln), 1.3350 (510mln).
• AUDUSD: 0.6985 (487mln), 0.7000 (343mln), 0.7030 (598mln).

Germany's IFO Business Climate Index rose in July to 86.6 (vs 86.0 cons), the third consecutive rise from the multi-year lows in April (85.7 prior). Despite the recovery, the overall index still sits below February's print of 88.6, which was the last before the US-Iran war. 

• The higher July figure came on the back of higher expectations (at 86.5, vs 84.8 cons, 84.3 prior) potentially bolstered by some structural reform announcements from the government, while the current assessment (86.5; 87.3 cons, 87.0 prior) fell this month. Across sectors, manufacturing mirrored Friday's PMIs which surprised to the upside but also services saw a higher figure in the July IFO. "Despite the uncertain situation in the Persian Gulf, the German economy appears less pessimistic.", IFO concludes.
• The press release notes that:
  • "In the manufacturing sector, the index rose noticeably. Expectations, in particular, saw a significant boost. Assessments of the current situation, however, were somewhat less favorable. Demand picked up, and material shortages eased."
  • The indicator rose in the service sector. Service providers were less skeptical regarding the coming months, though they rated their current business situation slightly lower. Sentiment improved among tour operators."
  • Business climate brightened once again in the trade sector. Companies were somewhat more satisfied with current business, and expectations were less pessimistic. Retailers, in particular, were slightly less concerned."
  • "The index rose in the construction sector. Both assessments of the current situation and expectations improved. Fewer companies reported a lack of orders."

NOK underperforms the G10 basket amid the sharp pullback in energy prices. Given the krone’s solid run through July, this likely represents a degree of long covering.

• NOKSEK is down 0.8% to 1.0065. The decline is considered corrective for now, with the main area of support noted around parity (aligning closely with the 20-day EMA)
• This week’s Norwegian calendar is centred on activity data, with retail sales, the credit indicator and registered unemployment due. Norges Bank is still expected to hike at one of the upcoming decisions, with uncertainty around whether this will be in August or September.
• August FX transactions are also due. In July, daily NOK buying was NOK524mln – the most since March. Given the rise in energy prices seen through July, daily NOK buying may decline somewhat. 

Figure 1: NOKSEK Since 2026