US DATA: Still Awaiting Revised Schedules

Nov-14 11:16
  • In case missed late yesterday, the BLS will provide an updated post-shutdown data schedule when it becomes available, here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm
  • “We appreciate your patience while we work to get this information out as soon as possible, as it may take time to fully assess the situation and finalize revised release dates."
  • Yahoo Finance's Schonberger had reported earlier yesterday that the BLS will produce an updated release schedule "in the coming days".
  • There's no word from the BEA or Census Bureau on their updated releases – they are likely to come after the BLS emerges with their new release schedule.
  • MNI re-opening guide: https://media.marketnews.com/Shutdown_Restart_Guide_Nov112025_4f06f43a37.pdf
  • Since we published that guide on Nov 11, NEC’s Hassett said the September NFP report could be released next week and said the October jobs report will be released without the unemployment rate, which we take to mean it will only release the establishment survey details in a split that we had thought was likely.
  • MNI data methodology cheat sheet: https://media.marketnews.com/Shutdown_Restart_Guide_Nov2025_data_cheat_sheet_b4bebe89ad.pdf

Historical bullets

GERMANY: Pistorius Commits EUR10bln To Drones Amid Coalition Divisions In Berlin

Oct-15 11:14

Speaking to reporters at a meeting of NATO ministers in Brussels, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius says that the German gov't plans to spend EUR10bln in the coming years "on all kinds of drones". Says that Germany has offered to take the lead in the EU's 'Sky Shield, and that if Russian President Vladimir Putin "tests our borders, we will react decisively." Pistorius: "We will increase our contribution to air policing [and] will send Eurofighters for patrol flights to Poland." 

  • Pistorius has been at the centre of a domestic political furore after he was viewed to have torpedoed a bipartisan deal on military service, despite negotiators from the centre-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) having reached an agreement. The FT reports Pistorius had "problems" with the deal, and complained that he was not included in talks.
  • Under NATO targets, Germany is due to expand its frontline troop numbers 80k by 2035. Pistorius initially put forward plans that he claimed would encourage volunteers to sign up.
  • Some in the CDU lamented a lack of recruitment targets and the exclusion of a mechanism to bring back conscription. A compromise involving a lottery if volunteer numbers do not hold up was reached, but this faced opposition from some SPD members. FAZ reports the Bundestag will debate the legislation on 16 Oct.
  • The disagreement highlights the fragile nature of the governing 'grand coalition', which can only afford to lose the support of 13 lawmakers in any parliamentary vote. The controversial nature of conscription risks a notable falling-out between the governing parties. 

GERMANY: Merz Looking To Deregulate Banks - Reuters Sources

Oct-15 11:13

“Germany's Merz aims to slash red tape on banks to boost economy, sources say” Reuters

  • “German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will push for deregulation in Europe's banking sector, four people familiar with his thinking said, his latest effort to spur growth in the continent's largest economy”.
  • “Merz, who was once chairman of the U.S. investment manager BlackRock in Germany, revealed his position in a recent speech. While acknowledging that increased bank risk buffers and reserves have strengthened financial stability, he warned that these measures have had devastating consequences for the German economy.”

Link here

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Large outright Call buyer

Oct-15 11:12

ERZ5 98.25c, bought for half in 33k.