US DATA: Small Business Price Plans Jump In May

The NFIB small business survey saw a small further decline in May to a fresh low since Oct 2024. However, the more notable findings were strong increases in both realized and expected price components to their highest since 2023, continuing to bounce from recent lows in Feb or March. 

• Actual price changes: A net 36% of firms increased prices compared to three months ago, the highest since Mar 2023, having extended a bounce from 24/25% in Feb/Mar via 30% in April.
• It shows much wider breadth of price increases than the 11-12% seen pre-pandemic although doesn’t give a sense of the magnitude of price changes.  
• Planned price changes: A net 34% of firms expect to increase prices over the next three months, the joint highest with Nov 2023, as it extended a bounce from 24% in March via 27% in April.
• Some recent swings in this series warrant caution when looking at a single month, with this notable upturn following March’s joint low with Jul 2024 for the lowest since Apr 2023. This latest high exceeds the 32% in Jan 2026 and 32% in Jun 2025, findings that interestingly matched the two strongest months in our calculation of median core goods inflation.
• For context, it averaged 21-22% in 2017-19 pre-pandemic.
• Small business optimism: 95.3 (cons 96.0) in May for a little lower than the 95.9 in April and 95.8 in May. It’s a fresh low since Oct 2024 and nudges a little further below a very long-term average of 98 but is comfortably within recent year ranges - see chart.