US DATA: Slower Consumption Rise Sees Q3 GDPNow Estimate Fall To 4.3% From 5.8%
Aug-14 15:48
The Atlanta Fed's estimate for Q3 real GDP growth fell sharply to 4.3% Q/Q SAAR in its latest full u...
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GILTS: Yesterday's Highs Cleared Following FT Mahmood Story
Jul-15 15:47
Gilt futures have inched another ~10 ticks higher following that FT story on Mahmood, which broadly confirmed reports from the I earlier. Yesterday’s highs have now been cleared, with futures +20 ticks on the session at 87.54. Initial firm resistance remains 88.07, the July 10 high. Rallies short of this level are considered corrective from a technical perspective.
BOC: MNI Rough Transcript Of BOC Press Conference: July 2026
Jul-15 15:41
Unedited, check against delivery: Bank of Canada - July 15 2026 Press Conference (MNI Rough Transcript).pdf
UK FISCAL: FT follows I's story that Mahmood to be next Chancellor
Jul-15 15:40
- It doesn't looks as though there is a huge amount more in the FT story than was in the I story earlier that set out some intended cabinet appointments. This may be the same source - but it's pouring further fuel on the fire suggesting Mahmood is the next Chancellor.
- Note that our Political Risk team wrote this earlier today on Mahmood:
- Mahmood became an MP in 2010, with her most prominent economic role coming as shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury in 2015 during Ed Miliband's time as Labour leader. Like Cooper, Mahmood did not take a position in Corbyn's shadow cabinet, and indeed backed Owen Smith's (unsuccessful) challenge to Corbyn's leadership in 2016, marking her out as being on the right of the Labour party.
- Mahmood's lack of experience in any Treasury roles means she is something of an unknown quantity when it comes to economic policies, but given her position on the right of the party an adherence to 'orthodox' economic policy views is seen as likely.
- Another factor potentially in her favour is that by appointing Mahmood Chancellor would move her on from the Home Office. While her more hardline policies regarding immigration and particular extending the period required to gain indefinite have garnered her vocal support on the right, it has drawn opposition from swathes of the left-leaning Parliamentary Labour Party. Making Mahmood Chancellor could allow for a shift in policy that appeases leftists in Labour, but leave the new Burnham gov't open to criticism from Reform UK and the Conservatives of being 'soft' on immigration, which remains a major policy issue domestically.
- For our full Political Risk piece see here.
