EUROPEAN INFLATION: Slight Moderation In Spanish Core HICP In March
Spanish March HICP inflation confirmed flash estimates at 2.22% Y/Y (vs 2.89% prior). As expected, energy (specifically electricity) inflation dragged on the headline reading, falling to 1.71% Y/Y (vs 8.58% prior).
- Excluding energy and unprocessed foods, HICP inflation was 2.00% Y/Y (vs 2.11% prior). Services inflation pulled back two tenths to 3.11% (vs 3.33% prior). Decelerations in medical, recreation/culture services and package holidays were somewhat offset by an uptick in transport services and accommodation.
- Non-energy industrial goods inflation remains subdued, but ticked up to 0.20% from 0.02% prior.
- The proportion of ECOICOP sub-components with annual inflation rates between 1-3% ticked up to 30% from 27% in February.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
STIR: Euribor Futures Paring Some of Overnight Recovery; Plenty of ECBspeak Due
Euribor futures are extending lower alongside Bunds at typing, now -1.0 to -2.0 ticks through the blues, paring some of the overnight recovery. EUR STIRs dipped alongside Bunds from ~1730GGMT last night on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire announcements and US-Canada tariff reprieve.
- The EU has announced a set of retaliatory tariffs against the US, after 25% levies on aluminium and steel imports were imposed overnight. Markets will need to assess whether the growth-negative or inflation-positive channel dominates here. Reactions to tariff headlines throughout this year have suggested the former is more important, not least given the impact of higher uncertainty.
- ECB-dated OIS price 45bps of easing through year-end, with a ~45% implied probability of a 25bp cut in April. Key data points to watch ahead of the April 17 decision are flash PMI/inflation data and the Q1 Bank Lending Survey.
- The ECB’s forward looking wage tracker is released at 1100GMT. President Lagarde said at the March press conference that “recent wage negotiations point to a continued moderation in labour cost pressures”. We expect the tracker to reflect this.
- Several ECB speakers are also scheduled throughout the day, headlined by President Lagarde at 0845GMT and Chief Economist Lane at 1515GMT.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Cut-adjusted Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Apr-25 | 2.299 | -11.4 |
| Jun-25 | 2.128 | -28.5 |
| Jul-25 | 2.080 | -33.3 |
| Sep-25 | 2.008 | -40.5 |
| Oct-25 | 1.989 | -42.5 |
| Dec-25 | 1.961 | -45.2 |
| Feb-26 | 1.963 | -45.0 |
| Mar-26 | 1.979 | -43.4 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
SILVER TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $33.397 - High Feb 14 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $32.939 @ 08:00 GMT Mar 12
- SUP 1: $31.640/30.815 - 50-day EMA / Low Feb 28
- SUP 2: $30.691/29.704 - Low Feb 3 / Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Recent weakness in Silver appears to have been a correction and the latest recovery reinforces this theme. A continuation higher would expose the bull trigger at $33.397, the Feb 14 high. Clearance of this level would resume the uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Key support to watch lies at $31.640, the 50-day EMA, and $30.815, the Feb 28 low.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt Opening calls, another wide range given the divergence between the EU and the US.
- Calls, 91.64/91.90 range.
