EURUSD TECHS: Sights Are on Trendline Resistance

In addition to the ISM Services report and FOMC Minutes already discussed, some other data releases include: 

• the full trade release for May after various large swings on both export and import sides of the ledger but with insufficient details in the advance release to fully pin them down (see more on that here).
• the NY Fed consumer survey including inflation expectations, a series that has been far less sensitive to energy price swings on the US-Iran war.
• existing home sales for June after pending sales showed a healthy bounce in May as they continued to recover from an all-time low in January.

• The FOMC minutes on Wednesday will be watched particularly closely for a better sense of a meeting where 9 of 18 members penciled in at least one hike this year, 6 of which looked for multiple hikes.
• New Chair Warsh did however add that "when I saw the submissions, I noted that all the submissions were coming in with pencils, you know, those kind with the big erasers. […] I didn't hear tons of conviction."
• When asked why the FOMC didn’t hike at the meeting considering Warsh’s comments that credibility is earned by delivering, he replied “That judgment you expressed was not expressed by any of the 19 people around the table. We’ll be meeting in six weeks, and we’ll take up the issue again.”
• A pledge to maintain price stability is likely to be a theme having dominated the press conference, including “today I'm announcing that this committee unambiguously and unanimously have decided we are going to deliver on that."
• That said, Warsh gave a brief outline on a range of labor market views: "the Committee thought the labor markets were stable. There were some people around the Committee who thought that it was trending better than that. Trends matter more than data points. What's happening over three or six months matters more than any one data point, any one data release. And I'd say the jobs data has been moving in a good direction."

• RES 4: 0.8694 High Jun 22 and a key resistance 
• RES 3: 0.8643 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.862320-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.8603 Low Jun 24  
• PRICE: 0.8569 @ 15:08 BST Jul 3
• SUP 1: 0.8544 50.0% retrace of the Dec 19 ‘24 - Nov 14 ‘25 bull leg
• SUP 2: 0.8508 Low Jun 27‘25
• SUP 3: 0.8468 61.8% retrace of the Dec 19 ‘24 - Nov 14 ‘25 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.8407 Low Jun 4 ‘25   

EURGBP conditions remain bearish. A sharp sell-off this week resulted in a clear break of support at 0.8610, the Mar 16 low. The breach highlights an important medium-term bearish development and paves the way for an extension towards 0.8544, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 0.8623, the 20-day EMA.