EU CREDIT RATING: Siemens Energy: Moody's Rating
"Siemens Energy Assigned Baa2 by Moody's, Outlook Positive" - Moody's...
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WTI TECHS: (N5) Trading Below Resistance
- RES 4: $72.12 - High Feb 20
- RES 3: $71.10 - High Apr 2 and key resistance
- RES 2: $65.82 - High Apr 4 2 and key resistance
- RES 1: $62.93/63.44 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
- PRICE: $61.56 @ 07:22 BST May 19
- SUP 1: $54.33 - Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $53.30 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $52.14 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number
A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.93, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
STIR: Uncertainty Around Timing Of 2nd 25bp Cut; Wunsch Dovish Leaning
ECB-dated OIS continue to essentially fully price a 25bp cut in June, with more uncertainty surrounding the timing of a second cut between July and December. There are 51bps of easing priced through year-end.
- Euribor futures are flat to 1.5 ticks through the blues. Overall, front-end EUR rates markets have seen limited spillover from Moody’s US rating downgrade late Friday.
- In an interview with the FT yesterday, National Bank of Belgium Governor Wunsch did not rule out “supportive” rates below 2%, given the downside risks to the economy and inflation. This is a more dovish stance from Wunsch than we are usually accustomed to, but his views already align with the Governing Council median, somewhat limiting the early market reaction.
- Wunsch’s comments increasingly isolate Executive Board member Schnabel as a hawkish outlier on the GC. On Saturday, Schnabel re-iterated her view that rates should be held at current levels.
- President Lagarde did not add much to the near-term policy debate in an interview with La Tribune Dimanche.
- Today’s Eurozone calendar is headlined by the final April HICP report, with focus on the drivers of higher-than-expected flash services inflation. ECBspeak is due from Muller.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-25 | 1.945 | -22.5 |
| Jul-25 | 1.870 | -30.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.759 | -41.1 |
| Oct-25 | 1.716 | -45.4 |
| Dec-25 | 1.656 | -51.4 |
| Feb-26 | 1.642 | -52.8 |
| Mar-26 | 1.632 | -53.8 |
| Apr-26 | 1.642 | -52.8 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Bear Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 3: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 2: $3435.6/3500.1 - High May 7 / High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $3259.5/3347.5 - 20-day EMA / High May 9
- PRICE: $3230.5 @ 07:25 BST May 19
- SUP 1: $3121.0 - Low May 15
- SUP 2: $3085.0 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
- SUP 3: $3100.0 - Round number support
- SUP 4: $3023.1 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 1 - May 6 price swing
A corrective cycle in Gold remains in play and the metal traded lower last week. A key support at $3202.0, the May 1, low has been breached. The break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement, towards $3085.0, 76.4% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg. Note that the 50-day EMA at $3169.4, has also been breached, strengthening a bearish threat. Initial resistance is $3259.5, the 20-day EMA.
