US: Senate Looks To Rush Through Final Govt Funding Package To Avert Shutdown

The Senate yesterday passed a second trio of FY2026 appropriations bills, funding the Commerce, Justice, Energy and Interior departments. The package, which passed in a bipartisan 82-15 vote, means that 6 out of 12 federal agencies are now fully funded through the end of September. 

• House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) told reporters yesterday that Republican leaders are working to, “wrap up” government funding in “a final agreement” in the coming days.
• Politico notes, “The House has four funding bills left: Defense, Transportation-HUD, Labor-HHS-Education and Homeland Security. Appropriators plan to release bipartisan, bicameral bill text this weekend for the first three bills, while DHS remains in flux.”
• The outlook in the Senate is slightly more challenging as the chamber is out next week. Senate GOP leaders are aiming to pass their remaining six bills in a single week, ahead of the January 30 deadline.
• While the risk of a government shutdown ticked up the 30% this week, it has since receded slightly. Any shutdown would likely be limited to the Department of Homeland Security and therefore of limited impact to markets. The base case is that there will be no shutdown, even a partial shutdown confined to DHS.

Figure 1: Government Shutdown by January 31

Source: Polymarket