SECURITY: Iran Alerted US And Russia Before Israel Missile Attack
Newswires reporting confirmation that Iran alerted both Russia and the United States, via diplomatic channels, before its ballistic missile attack on Israel this evening.
- Reuters: "Senior Iranian official tells Reuters: Tehran had informed Russia ahead of missile attacks on Israel... US was alerted by Iran through diplomatic channels 'shortly before the attacks'.”
- The report suggests that while the attack was more intense than a similar missile and drone attack in April, it may have been calibrated to prevent escalation that could risk a direct war between Iran and the United States.
- Dr. Sara Vakhshouri at SVB Energy notes: "Iran’s retaliation on Israel was likely pre-informed, signaling a calculated move not aimed at escalating the conflict. The real risk of escalation now hinges on Israel’s response, particularly after weakening Iran’s regional proxies and undermining its defense capabilities."
- NYT notes that Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military spokesman, said the attack would have “consequences,” adding, “We have plans, and we will act in the time and place we decide.”
- White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre notes that President Biden and Vice President Harris, "convened two meetings with their national security team... The President directed the US military to aid Israel’s defense against Iranian attacks & shoot down missiles targeting Israel. They also reviewed preparations to protect U.S. personnel in the region."
- Politico reports: US defense official confirms US forces are "defending against Iranian-launched missiles targeting Israel." US will "provide additional defensive support and to protect U.S. forces" in Middle East.
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USDCAD TECHS: Trend Direction Remains Down
- RES 4: 1.3739 High Aug 15
- RES 3: 1.3670 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3616 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3519 High August 26
- PRICE: 1.3498 @ 16:52 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 1.3441 Low Aug 28
- SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 8
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is trading at its recent lows. The latest impulsive sell-off reinforces the current bearish condition and moving average studies are unchanged and remain in a bear-mode set-up. Furthermore, 1.3589, the Jul 11 low, has recently been cleared, strengthening a bearish theme. Sights are on 1.3358, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3616,the 20-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
- RES 1: 0.6824 High Aug 29
- PRICE: 0.6760 @ 16:49 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 0.6700/6661 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15
- SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23
A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact despite the weakness into the Friday close. The pair is holding on to its latest gains and the most recent move higher has resulted in a print above 0.6799, the Jul 11 / Aug 23 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and pave the way for an extension towards 0.6871, the Dec 28 ‘23 high and the next key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.6700, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Copy - Trend Condition Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14
- RES 3: 164.82 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 164.06 200 DMA
- RES 1: 163.89 High Aug 15
- PRICE: 161.32 @ 16:48 BST Aug 30
- SUP 1: 159.79 Low Aug 12
- SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
- SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support
The trend outlook in EURJPY is bearish and this is reinforced by moving average studies that remain in a bull-mode set-up. The recovery that started Aug 5 has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The cross has pierced resistance the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 164.82. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would signal the end of the correction and open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.
