US TSYS/OVERNIGHT REPO: Secured Rates Tick Higher, Could Rise Slightly Further
Secured financing rates ticked up slightly Thursday, with SOFR, BGCR, and TGCR each rising 1bp. Effective Fed Funds were once again unchanged at 4.33%.
- Outside of the year/quarter end in December and the month-end in January, SOFR has largely traded in line or lower than effective Fed funds since the Federal Reserve adjusted ON RRP rates in mid-December (to 4.25% from 4.55%, 5bp more than the 25bp Fed funds rate cut).
- Secured rates could tick a little higher (the 4.32% on Wednesday was a 15-session low) in the coming days though, particularly given settlements from the quarter's Treasury refunding auctions on Tuesday, though the usual cash inflows to market from GSEs next week should mitigate upside rate pressure.
- Month-end will be a bigger test due to the usual factors, plus extremely large coupon Treasury settlements.
REPO REFERENCE RATES (rate, change from prev. day, volume):
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.33%, 0.01%, $2329B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.32%, 0.01%, $930B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.32%, 0.01%, $907B
New York Fed EFFR for prior session (rate, chg from prev day):
* Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume: $94B
* Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33%, no change, volume: $273B
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FRANCE: PM Looks Safe In 16 Jan Censure Vote, But Bigger Obstacles Ahead
The gov't of PM Francois Bayrou is likely to avoid being ousted at the first hurdle in the censure vote set to take place tomorrow (Thursday 16 Jan) in the National Assembly. The censure motion was put forward by the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) on 14 Jan following Bayrou's general policy speech to parliament. President of the National Assembly Yael Braun-Pivet has said the chamber will take up the motion at 1500CET (0900ET, 1400GMT).
- The centrist Ensemble, MoDem and Horizons parties will back Bayrou, as will the conservative Republican Right.
- Far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) deputy and party spox Sebastien Chenu said "We will not vote for censure today. We only vote for censure on concrete actions and not on words,"
- The most intense focus will be on the centre-left Socialist Party (PS). It sits within the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alongside LFI and other groups, but is being courted by Bayrou in an effort to win sufficient support to pass a budget.
- After Bayrou's speech, PS head Olivier Faure said "On the essential issue, that of pensions, the Prime Minister has opened the door a crack, and it is true that this is an achievement (...) but it is not enough," adding "At this stage, we will censor," and said he was waiting for "a clear answer".
- The RN's likely abstention will mean the LFI does not have the votes to oust Bayrou even if the PS sides with its NFP allies.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI INTERVIEW: Gilt Hit Weighs On Inflation - Ex-BOE Saunders
Ex-BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Michael Saunders talks to MNI about the policy implications of the gilt shock..-On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
EURIBOR: OI Suggests Short Setting Prevalent On Tuesday
OI data suggests short setting was once again prevalent through the Euribor greens on Tuesday. Pockets of long cover was seen in the blues.
- Euribor futures followed core EGBs lower through the course of yesterday’s session, with German yields reaching multi-month highs across the curve.
| 14/01/2025 | 13/01/2025 | Daily OI Change | Daily OI Change In Packs | ||
| ERH5 | 586,469 | 571,334 | +15,135 | Whites | +55,187 |
| ERM5 | 686,259 | 649,729 | +36,530 | Reds | +17,625 |
| ERU5 | 486,106 | 483,607 | +2,499 | Greens | +6,754 |
| ERZ5 | 645,806 | 644,783 | +1,023 | Blues | -730 |
| ERH6 | 414,534 | 413,689 | +845 | ||
| ERM6 | 336,831 | 336,178 | +653 | ||
| ERU6 | 277,699 | 270,673 | +7,026 | ||
| ERZ6 | 270,786 | 261,685 | +9,101 | ||
| ERH7 | 171,544 | 169,548 | +1,996 | ||
| ERM7 | 131,571 | 129,673 | +1,898 | ||
| ERU7 | 103,993 | 103,692 | +301 | ||
| ERZ7 | 131,026 | 128,467 | +2,559 | ||
| ERH8 | 57,504 | 57,429 | +75 | ||
| ERM8 | 43,571 | 43,783 | -212 | ||
| ERU8 | 22,336 | 23,420 | -1,084 | ||
| ERZ8 | 39,687 | 39,196 | +491 |
