BOJ: Rinban Purchases

Nov-28 01:12

The BoJ offers to buy a total of Y850bn of JGBs from the market:

  • Y325bn worth of JGBs with 3-5 Years until maturity
  • Y375bn worth of JGBs with 5-10 Years until maturity
  • Y150bn worth of JGBs with 10-25 Years until maturity

Historical bullets

ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equities Opening Mixed, Data Calendar Light

Oct-29 01:03

Asian equity have opened mixed this morning, markets trade in tight range as investors prepared for key events, including the US presidential election and critical economic data that could influence the next Federal Reserve decision. Sydney’s stocks gained while Tokyo remained relatively flat, and Hong Kong futures pointed toward an opening in the green.

  • In South Korea, the KOSPI has opened 0.50% lower this morning driven by losses in major tech and EV-related stocks like Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and LG Energy Solution, while defense firm Hanwha Aerospace and Samsung Biologics saw gains.
  • Japanese markets are mixed this morning as the markets await a BOJ policy decision, and labor market data showed further tightening in September, raising pressure on wages. The TOPIX is 0.10% higher, while the Nikkei is 0.25% lower.
  • Chinese electric vehicle stocks are expected to rise after reports indicated the government will increase purchases of new-energy vehicles to support the industry.
  • Australia equities are 0.45% higher this morning, with Financials contributing the most to index gains. Premium Investments have surged followed reports it has signed signed a binding share sale and implementation agreement with Myer. New Zealand equities have returned from a long weekend to trade unchanged.
  • US equities futures are little changed this morning, traders are positioning for a downside move heading into the US Election in the SPX. SPX Index which is currently trading at $5,823 shows the $4,700 strike puts have the most open interest for the Nov 8th maturity followed by the $5,000 puts while there is a 1.10 put/call ratio for the maturity.

FOREX: Yen Modestly Outperforming AUD, NZD, Amid US Yield Downtick

Oct-29 01:03

Broader USD indices sit little changed in the first part of Tuesday dealing. We were last near 1262 for the BBDXY USD index. 

  • USD/JPY has drifted a little lower, last under 153.00, around 0.2% stronger in yen terms. Earlier data showed a resilient labour market backdrop, with the jobless rate dipping back to cycle lows of 2.4%. Still, there was some slowing of jobs growth.
  • On the political front, Komeito leader Keiichi Ishii will step down, while other headlines crossed that PM Ishiba is seeking a partial coalition with centrist party DPP (per Yomiuri).
  • Yesterday's lows in USD/JPY came in at 152.41.
  • AUD/USD and NZD/USD sit down a touch. The A$ is slightly weaker at 0.6575, fresh lows back to mid August. NZD was last near 0.5975/80. We had softer jobs filled data earlier in NZ.
  • In the cross asset space, US yields are down a little over 1bps across the major benchmarks, slightly helping yen at the margins. US equity futures sit close to flat, while regional equities are mixed.
  • The data/event calendar is very light for the remainder of the Asia Pac session. 

AUSTRALIA: VIEW: Westpac Expects Electricity To Detract 0.4pp Off Headline

Oct-29 00:53

Westpac’s Q3 CPI forecasts for Wednesday’s release are in line with Bloomberg consensus at 2.9% y/y for headline and 3.5% for trimmed mean, but it is expecting the month of September to come in slightly lower at 2.2% y/y. It continues to expect the first rate cut to be in February with 100bp of easing over 2025.

  • Westpac’s headline “Q3 near-cast is 0.3%qtr/2.9%yr with the significant cost of living assistance seeing electricity fall –16%qtr (–0.39ppt contribution) holding the rise in housing component to just 0.1% compared to a 1.1% in the June quarter and 2.2%qtr in September 2024.”
  • “We are looking for the moderation in the pace of core inflation to continue with a Q3 Trimmed Mean nearcast of 0.7%qtr/3.5%yr. Rents (1.8%qtr) and dwellings (1.2%qtr) remain key factors in core inflation estimates.”
  • “The September month provides a critical update on prices that are surveyed in the last month of the quarter which includes many services.”
  • “The various cost–of–living relief measures, most notably the electricity rebates, had a significant impact in August. The Commonwealth energy bill relief fund rebates flowed to Qld and WA in July, while other jurisdictions followed in August. Qld, WA and Tas also had state specific rebates. Electricity declined –6.4% in July and a further –14.6% in August. Without the rebates, the ABS estimates electricity would have risen 0.9% in July and been flat in August.”
  • “We are looking for electricity to fall –16.2% in the September quarter.”
  • “The indexation of the Commonwealth Rental Assistance to the CPI occurred on the 20th of September so while most of its impact will be felt in October, some will also be felt in September. We have pencilled in a 0.5% increase for the month of September but see any risk to this being to the downside.”