SWEDEN: Riksbank Business Survey Link

• RES 4: $72.076 - 50.0% retracement of the May 13 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 3: $71.555 - High Jun 17
• RES 2: $67.993 - 38.2% retracement of the May 13 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 1: $66.795 - High Aug 12         
• PRICE: $65.636 @ 08:23 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: $61.808/54.778 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 17 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $52.577 - 1.000 proj of the Mar 2 - 23 - May 13 price swing  
• SUP 3: $50.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $48.644 - Low Nov 21 ‘25 

The M/T trend theme in Silver is bearish and S/T gains are - for now - considered corrective. However, the extension higher this month has resulted in a move through resistance around $63.099, the 50-day EMA. The break highlights a potential S/T reversal and signals scope for a stronger recovery near-term, towards $67.993, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $54.778, the Jul 17 low. 

• RES 4: 1.4175 High Jul 13
• RES 3: 1.4129 High Jul 28  
• RES 2: 1.4080 High Aug 4 and 5 
• RES 1: 1.4011 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3858 @ 08:20 BST Aug 17
• SUP 1: 1.3850 200-dma
• SUP 2: 1.38291.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.3817 61.8% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3770 Low May 29 

A fresh short-term cycle low in USDCAD early Friday confirmed an extension of the current bear leg and today’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions. Scope is seen for a deeper retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull leg - sights are on 1.3817, the 50% retracement point. Note that the 200-dma lies at 1.3850, an important support point. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.4011, the 50-day EMA. 

UK yields are 1-2bp lower in early trade, flattening, with oil off session highs and core global FI markets stabilising for now.

• 10s are back above 5.00% but the boundaries of the multi-week range (4.868% & 5.122%) remain untested.
• 2s10s curve pierced July highs on Friday. Fresh upside would target the psychological 70bp level, which protects a cluster of intraday highs from late March.
• The mix of a BoE that remains comfortable in wait and see mode and well-documented UK fiscal risks tilt the medium-term picture in favour of further curve steepening, but wider sentiment and energy prices swings surrounding the Middle East remain key intraday.