IRAN: Rezaei Reiterates Threat In Case Of Further Attacks

• At ~26bp, the EUR OIS 1y1y/5y5y spread is flattening off last week’s highs ~40bp, with scope to decline further.
• Despite, the latest flattening, the spread remains well above its late September lows near -10bp and still looks overextended on a relative basis once ECB policy expectations - as measured by 1y1y OIS - are accounted for; regression residuals are still well into positive territory, just off recent peaks.
• ESTR forwards notably above 3% arguably still lean toward being aggressive given the absence of second-round effects, which can help underpin the intermediate sector of the curve and downward pressure on 1y1y/5y5y.

• French OAT is taking the lead lower here with the best volume of the day going through, albeit still below averages.
• OATZ6 is sold in just 1.5k cumulative.
• This helps keep the OAT/Bund spread wider by 2.6bps which could impact the EUR and Euopean Equities.
• Immediate support for OATZ6 is at 107.76.

Ireland has announced it will be looking to sell E1.00-1.25bln of the 3.10% Jun-36 IGB (ISIN: IE000O6GBYC9) at its auction this Thursday, October 15.