UK DATA: Revisions to UK AWE Wage Data are Substantial (1/2)
Apr-15 07:31
- There have been some revisions to parts of the AWE data due going back to October 2020 to "late and updated returns [the ONS] received from one business to be included and improve the quality of the estimates."
- The business was in the private sector and within the "wholesaling, retailing, hotels & restaurants" category. Due to the impact it had on the aggregate data it must have been a very large employer - possibly a supermarket, a large pub or very big retail chain.
- The peak impact on the sectoral level was seen in April 2022 when the category was revised up 1.69ppt from the prior estimate. More recently in September 2024 there was a 1.15ppt upside revision for this category.
- Looking at the impact on private AWE the upward revision to April 2022 was 0.40ppt while August 2024 is the recent peak in the revision - up 0.29ppt.
- This means that whereas previously there was a recent trough in the series of 4.84% in August 2024, that trough is now 5.13%.
- Revisions to the past couple of months of data have actually been to the downside (although this won't be solely due to this one employer, it will also be incorporating other late returns). The single month estimates in October and November were both revised down by 0.05ppt with December revised down 0.10ppt and January 0.29ppt. This means on aggregate there was a 0.15ppt downward revision to private sector regular AWE in the 3-months to January (from the previously reported 6.06%Y/Y to 5.92%Y/Y).
- The latest print of 5.89%Y/Y in the 3-months to February is 0.11ppt around a tenth below the median estimate of 6.0%Y/Y we saw in the previews that we read.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
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The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
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