SILVER TECHS: Recent Weakness Appears Corrective

Large Bobl Eurex Rolls goes through.

• OEAU6/Z6 was bought for -33 in ~42k.

But this was followed by some rolls trading at -34. The spread has traded in ~78k outright spreads.

• RES 4: $72.076 - 50.0% retracement of the May 13 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 3: $71.555 - High Jun 17
• RES 2: $67.993 - 38.2% retracement of the May 13 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 1: $66.795 - High Aug 12         
• PRICE: $63.137 @ 08:18 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: $62.300/54.778 - 20-day EMA / Low Jul 17 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $52.577 - 1.000 proj of the Mar 2 - 23 - May 13 price swing  
• SUP 3: $50.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $48.644 - Low Nov 21 ‘25 

The M/T trend theme in Silver is bearish and S/T gains are - for now - considered corrective. However, the extension higher this month has resulted in a move through resistance around $63.211, the 50-day EMA. The break highlights a potential S/T reversal and signals scope for a stronger recovery near-term, towards $67.993, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger lies at $54.778, the Jul 17 low.

Lagarde's speech focuses on longer-term growth drivers and challenges facing Europe, concluding with a familiar call to expand the EU Single Market. Nothing on near-term monetary policy here. It’s a panel discussion, so additional headlines may filter through during the morning.

• “Europe’s post-war growth model rested on three mutually reinforcing pillars. Today, all three are weakening as the international environment changes.” Lagarde highlights Expanding global trade, strength in mid-tech manufacturing, supported by cheap energy, and a stable rules-based global order.
• She stresses that a large network of trade agreements, still-strong manufacturing capabilities and a large consumer market are strengths to build on.
• “Last year the euro area economy grew by 1.5%, driven entirely by domestic demand. In 2026 it has continued to grow despite the energy shock, with domestic demand contributing positively to the quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026.[9] Domestic demand is projected to remain the main source of growth for the euro area this year.”
• “The task now is to turn that domestic resilience into a more durable source of growth over the long run. This requires Europe to make better use of the scale of its home market. “
• “Europe largely missed out on the first digital revolution, as the commercial gains from the spread of information and communication technologies were captured disproportionately elsewhere. We cannot afford to repeat that experience with artificial intelligence (AI), the second digital revolution.”