FINANCIALS: Raiffeisen - S&P Outlook to Stable

The Dallas Fed's Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey mirrored its manufacturing counterpart in direction if not in magnitude, with current activity and expectations pulling back in February. 

• The index of current  general activity fell to a 4-month low 4.6 from 7.4 prior (and well off the 33-month high 10.8 in December), while the 6-month outlook dropped to 12.3 from January's 39-month high 31.2.
• To be sure, these readings are still higher compared with 2023-24 levels.
• But it seems clear that government policy risks including on tariffs are weighing (the outlook uncertainty index jumped to 14.2 from 3.0 prior).
• While some of the anecdotal comments accompanying the survey (part of a "special question" about how trade policy uncertainty and tariffs were impacting business) were positive about economic prospects under the new presidential administration, the vast majority were negative including on tariffs, immigration, and federal funding.

• EUR/USD: $1.0400(E1.1bln), $1.0420-35(E2.6bln), $1.0440-50(E2.8bln), $1.0460-75(E1.6bln), $1.0495-00(E1.6bln), $1.0510-30(E5.0bln), $1.0550(E1.4bln)
• USD/JPY: Y149.00($956mln), Y150.00($833mln), Y150.20-25($780mln), Y151.00($1.4bln), Y151.95($1.0bln)
• EUR/JPY: Y155.00(E927mln)
• GBP/USD: $1.2675(Gbp619mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6400(A$817mln)
• USD/CAD: C$1.3500($1.2bln), C$1.4300($784mln), C$1.4390-00($1.4bln)
• USD/CNY: Cny7.3500($1.2bln)

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 02/25 $500M Emerson Electric WNG 10Y +95a
• 02/25 $Benchmark State Street Corp 3Y +65a, 5Y +75a, 11NC10 +100a
• 02/25 $Benchmark Citigroup 4NC3 +95a, 4NC3 SOFR, 31NC30 +125a
• 02/25 $Benchmark Dow Chemical 10Y +130a, 30Y +165a
• 02/25 $Benchmark Southern Co 30NC10 6.75%a
• 02/25 $Benchmark Caterpillar 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR
• 02/25 $Benchmark KeyCorp 6NC5 +120a
• 02/25 $Benchmark Ameriprise 10Y +110a
• 02/25 $Benchmark Kenya 11Y investor calls