ECB: Q3 SPF: Core Inflation Revised Up For 2026 Only; Wage Growth Revised Down

• MNI: GERMANY JUN IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX 85.6

"SOME CHINESE BROKERAGES RESTRICT CLIENTS FROM INVESTING OVERSEAS VIA CROSS-BORDER TOTAL RETURN SWAPS, SOURCES SAY" - Reuters

A bit more detail on that headline: The move appears to be "aimed at putting the brakes on overseas investment."

• Reuters write: "Institutional clients were notified on Tuesday evening that they could no longer add new overseas investment exposure through total return swaps, or TRS contracts"
• "investors will only be able to maintain or sell down their existing positions"

Comes as part of the authorities' push to restrain domestic capital outflow - a growing problem as Chinese managers look to gain exposure to rallying foreign markets, particularly with a tech focus.

Rounding off the dovish and hawkish ends of the Riksbank Executive Board: 

Seim: Still hawkish, but no longer advocating a near-term rate hike. She needs to see evidence of “mounting global cost pressures” before arguing for such a move.

• “I still believe that the risks of inflation becoming too high have increased since March and therefore consider that an upward revision of the interest-rate path is justified.”
• “Fiscal policy is generally very expansionary, and the tax cuts on fuel that have been introduced or announced could, moreover, release an unexpectedly large amount of purchasing power if, for example, petrol prices were to fall once a Memorandum of Understanding is in place”
• “Before advocating a rate hike at any of our forthcoming meetings, I would like to see reliable signs that the mounting global cost pressures will have a worrisome impact on Swedish inflation.”

Hjelm: Dovish: Although he supported the upward rate path revision in June due to the shifting risk backdrop, he fundamentally believes the March path is reasonable if the baseline scenario plays out (i.e. rates on hold for longer). 

• “In my view, a slight upward revision of the interest-rate path is warranted given that, after nearly four months of war, we are inexorably approaching a point – or choke point – where, among other things, reduced oil stock levels could more abruptly lead to sharp price rises, even though expert opinion is divided on exactly when this might happen.”
• However:  “I believe, fundamentally, that the policy-rate path set out in the March forecast remains reasonable if developments are assessed to be broadly in line with the baseline scenario, given that the risk outlook becomes more balanced”
• “Given the current situation regarding inflation and resource utilisation, and based on reasonable assumptions about fiscal policy and wage formation, the risk that supply shocks of the current magnitude will lead to a broad and persistent rise in inflation is limited.”