SECURITY: Putin May Supply Belarus With 'Oreshnik' Missiles

Dec-06 15:08

Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated openness to deploying Oreshnik missiles to Belarus. The Oreshnik, a new intermediate-range ballistic missile system capable of delivering a nuclear payload, was combat-tested in Ukraine last month, raising concerns over an escalation of the war. 

  • IFX reports that Putin said it's "possible to deploy Oreshnik in Belarus in the second half of 2025."
  • The comments come amid increasing diplomatic activity suggesting negotiations to end the war could get underway shortly after US President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Trump VP, JD Vance, and key members of Trump’s team, including National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Special Envoy Keith Kellog, met with a delegation of senior Ukrainian officials on Wednesday.
  • Politico reports the meeting was meant to "start developing personal relationships ahead of Trump taking office in January," with a source saying the Ukrainian side "left satisfied with how things went.”
  • The report notes that Andriy Yermak, a key advisor of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, “also made a quick stop down to Mar-a-Lago on Wednesday where he huddled with incoming White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.”
  • New reports revealed that Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov and US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Brown held their first-ever call on November 27. Brown’s spokesperson said “at the request of General Gerasimov, General Brown agreed to not proactively announce the call,” noting that the two men “discussed a number of global and regional security issues, to include the ongoing conflict in Ukraine,”

Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'24 5Y Sale

Nov-06 15:08
  • -7,635 FVZ4 106-19, sell through 106-19.25 post time bid at 1000:15ET, DV01 $318,000. The 5Y contract trades 106-20.5 last

BTP: BTP/Bund Spread Widening Persists

Nov-06 15:06

The 10-year BTP/Bund spread is now 7.5bps wider today at 132bps, as European extend lower.

  • The spread is at its widest since October 9, after reaching a low of ~117bps on October 18. The late-October widening was in part driven by hawkish ECB repricing following the stronger-than-expected flash Eurozone Q3 GDP and October inflation data.
  • BTP futures are off intraday lows, but remain -51 ticks today at 118.82.

US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Dec'24 30Y Covered Put

Nov-06 15:05
  • 10,000 USZ4 115 puts, 103 vs. 115-18/0.42% at 1001:00ET