USDJPY TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction

May-31 2024 05:43
  • RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
  • RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
  • RES 1: 157.71 High May 29
  • PRICE: 156.74 @ 06:42 BST May 31
  • SUP 1: 156.17/154.49 20- and 50-day EMA values
  • SUP 2: 153.57 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
  • SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3
  • SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play and Thursday’s pullback appears to be a correction. Resistance at 156.74, the May 14 high and 157.00, 61.8% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off, have recently been breached. A continuation higher would open 157.99, the May 1 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would again refocus attention on key support at 154.49, the 50-day EMA, and 153.57, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low.

Historical bullets

EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C April 29, 2024

May-01 2024 05:43

Germany, France, Greece and Belgium sold bills this week. Issuance was E12.9bln in first round operations, down from E20.7bln last week.


For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.

GILT TECHS: (M4) Trend Structure Remains Bearish

May-01 2024 05:28
  • RES 4: 99.37 High Apr 4
  • RES 3: 99.10 High Apr 10
  • RES 2: 97.03/98.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
  • RES 1: 96.57 High Apr 29
  • PRICE: 95.78 @ Close Apr 30
  • SUP 1: 95.36 Low Apr 25
  • SUP 2: 95.00 Round number support
  • SUP 3: 94.86 2.236 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
  • SUP 4: 94.52 2.382 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing

A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact. Last week’s breach of support at 96.01, the Apr 17 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, moving average studies have recently crossed, highlighting a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for a move towards the 95.00 handle next. Initial firm resistance to watch is 97.03, the 20-day EMA.

LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

May-01 2024 05:23
Date UK Period Event
01-May 0930 Apr S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
07-May 0001 Apr BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
07-May 0930 Apr S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI
09-May 0001 Apr RICS House Prices
09-May 0001 Apr KPMG/REC Jobs Report
09-May 1200 Bank Of England Interest Rate
09-May 1230 BoE Press Conference
09-May 1400 Apr BOE's Decision Maker Panel Data
09-May 1715 BOE's Pill MPR Virtual Q&A
10-May 0700 Mar GDP/Trade/Services/Production/Construction
10-May 0700 1Q GDP First Estimate
10-May 1215 BOE's Pill at National MPC Agency Briefing
14-May 0700 Mar/Apr Labour Market Survey