OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Oil Futures Appear Vulnerable
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold is bullish and the yellow metal traded higher Monday, starting the week on a firm note and extending the current uptrend. This maintains the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position - reflecting the current trend condition. The focus is on $1896.5, 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg. On the downside, support to watch lies at $1825.2, Jan 5 low.
- In the Oil space, the WTI futures outlook is bearish following the sell-off on Jan 3 and 4. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $70.31, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This would open $68.19,the 1.236 projection of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing. On the upside, key resistance is at $81.50, the Jan 3 high. Initial resistance is at $76.50, the 20-day EMA.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Extension
- RES 3: 97.185 - High Apr 5
- RES 2: 97.040 - Aug 03
- RES 1: 96.760 - High Aug 16
- PRICE: 96.672 @ 14:43 GMT Dec 9
- SUP 1: 95.930/675 - Low Nov 8 / Low Oct 21
- SUP 2: 95.670 - Low Jun 17
- SUP 3: 95.590 - Low Dec 2013 and a key medium-term support
Aussie 10yr futures continue to climb. A key short-term resistance at 96.355, Oct 6 high, has been breached. This strengthens a short-term bullish position and the latest follow through reinforces this theme. Recent gains also highlight a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, signalling scope for an extension. The 200-day EMA has been cleared, opening 96.760, Aug 16 high. Key support is 95.670, Jun 17 low (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Above Trendline Resistance
- RES 4: 1.3855 High Oct 21 - Nov 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3751 High Nov 4
- RES 1: 1.3700 High Dec 7
- PRICE: 1.3625 @ 16:19 GMT Dec 9
- SUP 1: 1.3515/3385 Former trendline resistance / Low Dec 5
- SUP 2: 1.3317/3226 Low Nov 24/25 / Low Nov 15 and bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
- SUP 4: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
USDCAD recouped a small part of the recent losses ahead of the Friday close, firming the view that the recent move lower appears corrective in nature. This keeps the bullish outlook intact for now. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of trendline resistance drawn from the Oct-13 high. The trendline intersects at 1.3515. Attention is on 1.3751 next, the Nov 4 high and 1.3808, the Nov 3 high. The latter is a key resistance and a break would strengthen bullish conditions.
AUDUSD TECHS: Approaching The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 0.6976 2.00 proj of the Oct 13 - 27 - Nov 3 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6956 High Aug 30
- RES 2: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
- RES 1: 0.6851 High Dec 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6804 @ 16:18 GMT Dec 9
- SUP 1: 0.6669 Low Dec 7
- SUP 2: 0.6629/6585 50-day EMA / Low Nov 21
- SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
- SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support
The AUDUSD trend condition is bullish and the recent move lower appears to be a correction. Price remains above key support at 0.6629, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would be seen as a bearish development and signal scope for a deeper retracement. 0.6851, the Dec 5 high is the bull trigger. A break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 0.6909, a Fibonacci retracement.
