OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Bull Cycle Remains In Play
Jan-22 11:57
- On the commodity front, Gold is trading higher this week. The yellow metal has breached resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high and a key short-term resistance. The clear break of this hurdle strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for an extension near-term. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2675.0, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA lies at $2676.1.
- In the oil space, the trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish despite the latest pullback. The move down is allowing an overbought trend reading to unwind. The latest strong impulsive climb resulted in a breach of $75.91, the Oct 8 high. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme and open 80.63, a 3.236 projection of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing. Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at $74.07.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Support Remains Exposed
Dec-23 11:53
- On the commodity front, Gold traded sharply lower on Dec 18. The move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position highlighting a medium-term uptrend and this suggests that the latest sell-off is likely a correction. Initial pivot resistance is $2642.9, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would be positive for bulls.
- In the oil space, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $71.97, the Nov 7 high.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Belgium HICP Inflation Down Four Tenths in December
Dec-23 11:50
Belgium HICP inflation decreased four tenths in December vs November, at 4.4% Y/Y according to the Stabel flash estimate. This follows three consecutive months of increases in HICP.
- National CPI (non-HICP) came in at 3.16% Y/Y, from 3.20% in November. Core CPI came in at 2.91%, compared to 2.80% in November.
- Food including alcoholic beverages inflation jumped to 1.85% Y/Y (vs 0.80% in November) although this is largely due to a base effect. On a monthly basis prices rose 0.04% M/M.
- Services inflation firmed to 3.94% Y/Y from 3.52% in November.
- Energy inflation in contrast slowed to 7.40% Y/Y (vs 9.44% in November), though it remains above October's level of 7.26% Y/Y. The slowdown was driven by a softening in electricity price increases to 12.6% Y/Y from 15.2% in November and gas prices to 59.2% Y/Y (vs 111.3% prior). The upward impact on inflation here is explained by the removal of the flat rate of electricity and gas which is expected to have an impact till February 2025.
- For context, Belgium makes up 3.8% of the total Eurozone HICP basket. Its contribution to the overall print will henceforth be limited.
US TSY FUTURES: Short Cover Seen In Most Contracts On Friday
Dec-23 11:38
OI data suggests net short cover was seen in most contracts during Friday’s rally, with only modest long setting in FV futures breaking the wider trend.
- WN futures saw the only DV01 equivalent positioning swing of note (~$1.8mn).
| 20-Dec-24 | 19-Dec-24 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,201,990 | 4,222,691 | -20,701 | -797,916 |
FV | 6,121,899 | 6,112,805 | +9,094 | +385,049 |
TY | 4,445,805 | 4,453,126 | -7,321 | -474,730 |
UXY | 2,148,211 | 2,153,444 | -5,233 | -461,798 |
US | 1,873,119 | 1,875,319 | -2,200 | -277,491 |
WN | 1,761,972 | 1,771,554 | -9,582 | -1,832,677 |
|
| Total | -35,943 | -3,459,563 |
