US: President Biden's Approval Rating Extends Moderate Gains
President Biden has seen his approval rate strengthen through February and March following a perceived strong performance in his State of the Union Address and surprise trip to Ukraine.
- Biden’s approval suffered a hit in January following news that he had improperly stored classified government documents at private locations but the fallout from that incident appears to have receded.
- The White House will be watching closely to see how voters respond to President Biden's 2024 budget which targets elderly voters by proposing tax hikes on the wealthy to extend Medicare solvency and protect entitlement spending.
Figure 1: President Biden Approval Rating
Source: FiveThirtyEight
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US TSYS: 10YY Fails To Clear 3.75% as Real Yields and Inflation Breakevens Ebb
- Today’s inability to hold clearance of 3.75% for 10Y yields (currently 3.715%, -2bp), a level last sustainably seen at the turn of the year, has come with both a mild rolling over in real yields and the inflation breakeven.
- Higher real yields have driven the ~35bp increase in 10Y nominal yields since the payrolls beat on Feb 3 but the inflation breakeven has also drifted to what is currently 7bp higher over the period at 2.32%.
- The latter is however down from last week’s high of 2.37%, a level last seen in early December, as surging real yields with the Fed looking to take rates to a sufficiently restrictive levels have begun to bite.
US 10Y (white) and breakeven (yellow)Source: Bloomberg
US STOCKS: Earnings After the Close
Highlight earnings expected after the close: Vornado Realty (VNO $0.665 est), Avis Budget Grp (CAR $6.45 est), Cadence Design (CDNS $0.92 est), Arista Networks (ANET $1.21 est).
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: IT Remains Strong
Stock indexes holding near late session highs, bounce in Information Technology shares continue to outperform. SPX eminis currently trading +33.25 (0.81%) at 4133; DJIA +258.22 (0.76%) at 34126.81; Nasdaq +135.7 (1.2%) at 11854.16.
- SPX leading/lagging sectors: Information Technology sector extends gains (+1.70%) w/ software/services narrowly outpace hardware and chip makers (MSFT +3.39%, DCX +3.18%, CRM +2.38%). Consumer Discretionary (+1.3%) gained in the second half, followed by Consumer Services (+1.17%). The former lead by textiles, apparel and luxury goods (RL +4.2%, NKE +2.61%), the latter supported by media and entertainment (WBD +5.7%, META +3.57%, NFLX +3.31%).
- Laggers: Energy (-0.54%), Health Care (+0.35%) and Utilities (+0.44%). Energy sector weighed by O&G refiners/marketers (EQT -2.7%, COP -1.96%, APA -1.56%).
- Dow Industrials Leaders/Laggers: Microsoft (MSFT) +8.45 at 271.56, Home Depot (KHD) +6.09 at 322.63, Salesforce (CRM) +3.51 at 170.54. Laggers: United Health (UNH) -0.68 at 493.57, Chevron (CVX) -0.40 at 171.57, Caterpillar (CAT) -0.26 at 247.41.
