POWER: German Morning Renewable Forecast

Following our earlier reporting (see 'JAPAN: Prime Minister Kishida Not To Seek Second Term', 0249BST), Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has now confirmed that he will step down from office in September after the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)'s election of a new party president.

• At a presser in Tokyo earlier today, Kishida said "In the upcoming presidential election, it's necessary to show the people that the Liberal Democratic Party will change...A transparent and open election and free and open debate are important. The first easy-to-understand step that indicates that the LDP will change is for me to step back,"
• Since coming to power in Oct 2021 Kishida has struggled to keep his head above water when it came to approval ratings. Kishida's record on defence and foreign policy has been welcomed by the West with regard to support for Ukraine and developing closer relations with South Korea.
• However, in late 2023 a major funding scandal broke out. Prosecutors investigated whether LDP parliamentarians received money from off-book slush funds associated with party fundraising events. Four cabinet ministers, five senior vice-ministers and a parliamentary vice-minister, all from the powerful faction related to the late Shinzo Abe, were forced to resign.
• The scandal has tarnished Kishida's image, and indeed is a major threat to continued party support.
• Foreign policy hawk Shigeru Ishiba, who previously served as defence minister, leads in next leader opinion polling with ~25% support. Former Environment Minister Shinjirō Koizumi is consistently second with ~14% support. There are then five other potential candidates with support in the mid-single digits.