POWER: End of Day Power Summary: CWE Gives Some Back Gains, Nordics Hold
CWE returned some gains as TTF prices dropped after Russian PM Novak's remarks about future gas transit via Ukraine being contingent on the EU and Ukraine, along with proposals to continue Russian gas purchases after 31 Dec. The Nordic curve remained strong due to a weakened hydro balance and cooler temperatures expected next week.
• Nordic Base Power NOV 24 up 1.5% at 44.9 EUR/MWh (15:43 BST)
• France Base Power NOV 24 up 4.5% at 74.3 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power NOV 24 up 1.7% at 86.18 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 3.8% at 62.57 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas NOV 24 down 1% at 38.53 EUR/MWh
• EU ETS Dec24 prices are holding gains today amid cooler weather and a minor recovery in EU equities from Tuesday's lows, despite funds adopting a more bearish stance, while the latest bi-weekly Polish Primary Market Auction (Phase 4 - CAP3) cleared lower at €61.18/ton CO2e, down from €63.55/ton CO2e.
• European utilities have kept their net zero targets despite a rebound in coal consumption due to the region’s energy crisis.
• European gas prices have extended losses following Russian PM Novak’s remarks later in the session, with stable fundamentals and reports suggesting that Israel’s response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack "will likely focus on military targets.”
• Power demand in Germany, France and the UK this winter is expected to rise 4%, or 24.3TWh, above last year’s levels due to normal weather conditions, compared with mild weather last winter,
• Nordic hydropower reserves moved down sharply to the lowest since week 34 last week (week 40), with stocks at 79% of capacity, or 85.14TWh as higher demand in the region and lower rainfall extended the drawdown.
• The Danish Energy Agency has officially adopted a plan to develop the North Sea 1 offshore wind farm, with bids for the project due by 5 December.
• The 507MW Loviisa Unit 1 is anticipated to return to the grid at 19:00 CET, with the OL3 returning to normal power production, TVO said.
• Italian hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 40 – edged higher by 0.01TWh to 3.21TWh, widening the surplus to the five-year average
• The Polish government's "Medium-term budgetary and structural plan for 2025-2028", adopted yesterday, includes a 15% rise in regulated electricity tariffs for end users.
• Romania is negotiating with a consortium of Japan’s Itochu and France’s EDF to develop the 1GW Tarnita-Lapustesti pumped hydro storage plant
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
UK DATA: MNI UK Labour Market Preview
- Overall we see downside risks to the median expectation of private regular AWE data (4.9%Y/Y in the 3-months to July) but given the large uncertainty over the public sector wage growth don’t have a strong view surrounding the 5.1%Y/Y in the 3-months to July that consensus looks for in total regular wage growth.
- There is also huge uncertainty here due to the continued questions surrounding the reliability of LFS data. This will be watched closely but most analysts have marked down their estimates for this month so the median expectation is for 4.1%.
- Finally, the claimant count increased again in last month’s release but the ONS noted that this was largely due to an administrative change that impacted the earnings threshold.
We look at all of these factors in more detail in the full document here.
EU: German Fin Min Shoots Down Draghi Joint Debt Call-Politico
Politico reporting that German Finance Minister Christian Lindner has swiftly shot down calls from former Italian PM and ECB president Mario Draghi for a new common EU debt fund to advance investment in industry and defence. Draghi presented his long-awaited report on EU competitiveness earlier today. The document (full version here, abridged version here) calls for a "boost [in] centralised funding whilst maintaining budget discipline to support an additional EUR750-800 billion in annual investment spending over the next few years".
- As noted in an earlier MNI Policy article (see 'MNI: Draghi Calls For EU Funds To Support Huge Investments', 9 Sep), "Draghi called for the issuance of a common safe asset "on a more systematic basis" in order to underpin an EU Capital Markets Union and so lower the cost of capital for private sector financing of his transformative proposals, but said stronger fiscal rules will be required to ensure that public debt at the national level is put on a more sustainable path."
- Lindner told Politico that such pooling of EU debt "risks and liability creates democratic and fiscal problems," adding "Our problem is not a lack of subsidies, but the shackling of bureaucracy and a planned economy, More government debt costs interest, but does not necessarily create more growth."
US TSYS: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.530%(ALLOT 46.64%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.530%(ALLOT 46.64%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 30.31% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 6.52% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 63.17% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.98
