US LABOR MARKET: Potential Factors At Play In Tomorrow's Payrolls Figures

• RES 4: 1.1621 Trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 17 high
• RES 3: 1.1543 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 1.1528 High Jun 18
• RES 1: 1.1473 High Jul 02
• PRICE: 1.1429 @ 19:47 BST Jul 7
• SUP 1: 1.1362/25 Low Jul 1 / Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1299 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1210 Low May 29 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.1111 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull leg 

Recent gains in EURUSD continue to appear corrective. The pair has pierced 1.1463, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery, potentially towards 1.1543, the 50-day EMA. A bearish trend condition remains intact, highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode position. The bear trigger lies at 1.1325, the June 24 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. 

The US Treasury revoked General License X issued on June 21, 2026 and issued Iran-related General License X1 today. 

• Today’s revoking of that issuance indicates that authorizations for Iranian crude imports into the US made on June 21st is no longer authorized.
• The initial issuance from June authorized the Production, Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil, Petrochemical Products, and Petroleum Products of Iranian-Origin through August 21, 2026.
• It stated that “Transactions authorized by this general license include the importation into the United States of crude oil, petrochemical products, and petroleum products of Iranian origin, where such importation is ordinarily incident and necessary to the sale, delivery, or offloading of such crude oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products authorized by this general license.”
• The revoking comes on a day when several vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, were attacked by Iranian forces.
• This revoking by the US treasury is likely in response to Iran’s actions today and an attempt to reapply pressure on Iran for the ongoing negotiations and the MOU that was agreed to stating free and uninterrupted transit through the Strait.
• July 7th revoking and issuance: https://ofac.treasury.gov/recents-actions/20260707
• June 21st issue: https://ofac.treasury.gov/media/936206/download?inline

• RES 4: 111-03   50.0% retracement of the Mar 2 - May 19 bear leg
• RES 3: 110-28+ High May 7, 2026
• RES 2: 110-14   38.2% retracement of the Mar 2 - May 19 bear leg
• RES 1: 110-10+ High Jun 26
• PRICE:‌‌ 109-11+ @ 19:32 BST Jul 07
• SUP 1: 109-06   Low Jun 22 and key S/T support 
• SUP 2: 108-25   Low Jun 08 
• SUP 3: 108-08+ Low May 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 108-04   1.382 proj of Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 swing

Treasuries continue to trade below last week’s high. Resistance to watch is  110-10+, the Jun 26 high. Recent gains have resulted in; a breach of the 50-day EMA, and a move through resistance at 110-00+, the May 29 high. The break continues to highlight a possible S/T  reversal. A resumption of gains would open 110-14, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support to watch is 109-06, the Jun 22 low. Clearance of this level would be bearish.