US TSYS: Post-Beige Book Update

TRUMP: I'M NOT GOING TO LET IRAN CHARGE TO GO THROUGH HORMUZ STRAIT - [RTRS]

• RES 4: 110-10+ High Jun 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 110-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 109-09   50-day EMA
• RES 1: 108-25+ 20-day EMA 
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-12+ @ 19:01 BST Aug 03
• SUP 1: 107-29   1.618 proj of Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 swing
• SUP 2: 107-20+ 1.764 proj of Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 swing 
• SUP 3: 107-06+ 2.000 proj of Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 swing 
• SUP 4: 107-00   Round number support

The short-term trend condition in Treasuries remains bearish and Friday's sell-off reinforces current conditions. The contract traded to a fresh cycle low to confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This paves the way for a move towards 107-29, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 108-25+.

A new report from Ipsos has found, “Among Democrats and Democrat leaners, two in five would prefer a candidate who identifies as a democratic socialist over a candidate who identifies as a Democrat. That’s not a majority, but it’s not a group that will disappear overnight.”

• Ipsos notes, “Democrats and Democrat leaners that are open to democratic socialists are more likely to be college-educated and more likely to be younger than those that prefer a Democrat. Meanwhile, both groups have similar gender and racial profiles.”
• However, “Regardless of whether they prefer a Democrat or a democratic socialist, Democrats still mostly agree on what they feel are the top issues facing the country: the economy and threats to democratic norms. The Democratic coalition sees the same problems but has different solutions for how to solve them,” according to Ipsos.
• The report comes ahead of the Michigan Senate primary tomorrow, where Abdul El-Sayed is expected to register the most high-profile win of the cycle for the insurgent democratic socialist wing of the Democratic Party.
• AP writes, “The stakes extend well beyond the primary. The nominee will need to bring a fractured Democratic coalition back together to defeat Republican Mike Rogers in November and hold an open seat that is critical to the party’s hopes of taking control of the Senate next year.”

Figure 1: Which of the following better describes your own views?

Source: Ipsos