SWITZERLAND: Poll Shows Neutrality Initiative Likely To Fail

• In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish - MA studies are in a bull-mode position and continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. For now, short-term pullbacks are considered The bull trigger is 7693.75, the Jun 2 high.
• The trend set-up in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bullish and price continues to trade above support. The key short-term level to watch lies at 6189.38, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement of the Mar 23 - Jul 6 bull leg. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger is at 6462.00, the Jul 6 high.

Treasuries trade modestly twist steeper after a light overnight for volumes. The front end continues to slowly pare some of yesterday’s earlier losses with oil off highs on net but 30s slightly extend losses and have come close to last week’s lows since May. There has been little reaction to the FT reporting that Trump is poised to impose fresh tariffs as soon as this week, with it not being a large surprise given 10% S.122 tariffs expire this week. 

• Cash yields are 1bp lower (2s) to 1bp higher (20s and 30s).
• 30Y yields at 5.121% are come close to testing Thursday’s high of 5.1281% at highs since May 21.
• TYU6 trades at 108-29+ (+02+) on light cumulative volumes of 235k, comfortably within yesterday’s range throughout.
• The outlook remains bearish and recent gains corrective, with support at 108-17 (Jul 14 low) before a bear trigger at 108-08+ (May 19 low) whilst resistance is seen at 109-17 (Jul 17 high).
• Data: Weekly ADP (0815ET), Philly Fed non-mfg Jul (0830ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $95B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
• Politics: Trump greets President Of Republic of Lebanon (1100ET) before bilateral meetings (1115ET, closed press). Various other closed press events including Trump greeting Denison University Student Athletes (1000ET), policy meetings (1600ET, 1730ET) and greeting House GOP members (1700ET)

"YEMEN’S HOUTHIS WARN SHIPPING COMPANIES TO AVOID LOADING OR DISCHARGING AT SAUDI PORTS – EMAIL SENT TO COMPANIES" RTRS
"VESSELS MAKING VOYAGES TO AND FROM SAUDI PORTS MAY BE “SUBJECT TO TARGETING IN ANY LOCATION” BY HOUTHI FORCES – EMAIL SENT TO COMPANIES"