CANADA: Politics Week: Carney Poised To Win Liberal Leadership Race
Feb-27 15:43
- Mark Carney kept momentum as the leading candidate during Liberal leadership debates this week. Rivals seemed more focused on party unity than attacking Carney ahead of an election later this year. The winner of the March 9 vote takes over from Justin Trudeau as prime minister.
- Carney reiterated he may call an election before Parliament resumes March 24, depending in part on the situation around tariff threats. He pledged "dollar for dollar" retaliation and won't negotiate around language, culture and water and would protect farmer "supply management." Those are priorities in Quebec, key to Liberal election fortunes.
- Recent polls suggest Liberals/Carney are closing the polling gap with Conservatives as focus shifts to a trade war.
- Election is due in October under a traditional four-year mandate. Opposition parties have signaled they will combine to pass a non-confidence motion as soon as possible to force an early campaign.
- Ontario, Canada's richest and most populous province, is likely tonight to re-elect Progressive Conservative Doug Ford. He called a snap election pledging a fight against tariffs including cutting off electricity shipments.
- Sample headlines: No one rained on Carney’s parade, and now, he’s set to be our next prime minister (Globe).
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US DATA: Regional Fed Mfg Surveys Point To Sizeable ISM Mfg Upside Risk
Jan-28 15:37
- The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey rounded out the five regional Fed reports for January, with the five on balance seeing a sequential improvement.
- The Richmond mfg index beat expectations as it increased to -4 in Jan (cons -10) from -10 in Dec for a further improvement away from the low of -21 in September. It’s now the least negative since May.
- New orders painted a broadly similar story, at -4 after -11 although that was its least negative since Oct 2023.
- Looking more broadly, three of the five regional Fed indices saw improvements in January, whilst Kansas held steady for roughly a fourth consecutive month and Empire gave back some of its prior gains.
- Philly clearly stood out though, surging from -10.9 to 44.3 for the highest since the 44.4 in Apr 2021 and before that 1984.
- That biased the unweighted average of the five series firmly higher, rising from -3.9 to +7.4 for its first positive reading since May 2022.
- Taken directly, it points to an ISM manufacturing reading comfortably in the 50s at would be a sizeable beat, currently expected at 48.9 in Jan after 49.2 (released next Monday). However, the localized nature of regional strength suggests caution is needed.
GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Jan-28 15:33
The DMO has announced it will be looking forward to sell GBP4.25bln of the 4.375% Mar-30 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BSQNRD01) at its auction next Tuesday, February 4.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance Update: $2B Arab Republic of Egypt 2Pt Launch
Jan-28 15:22
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/28 $2B Carnival Corp 8NC3
- 01/28 $2B #Arab Republic of Egypt $1.25B 5Y 8.625%a, $750M 8Y 9.45%
- 01/28 $750M #Ziraat Bank 5Y 7.375%
- 01/28 $Benchmark American Express 6NC5 +100a, 6NC5 SOFR, 11NC10 +120a
- 01/28 $Benchmark Toronto-Dominion Bank 3Y +85a, 3Y SOFR, 7Y +105a
- 01/28 $Benchmark Capital One 11NC10 +195a
- 01/28 $Benchmark JPMorgan PerpNC5 7%a
- 01/28 $Benchmark Aircastle 5Y +137.5a
- 01/28 $Benchmark ForteBank 5Y 8%a
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