POWER: Poland’s March Rebounds on Power Plant Outages, Extensions

Poland’s March rebounded to resists losses in European coal, emissions and upward revision of temperatures forecast amid unplanned works at the 497MW Zeran 2 and 1GW unit 10 at the 2.2GW Kozienice 2 power plants, with continued maintenance extensions at the 910MW Jaworzno 2 plant.

• Poland’s March baseload power settled at PLN442.80/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN431.90/MWh on 19 February, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
• EUA DEC 25 down 1.7% at 72.76 EUR/MT
• Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 1.1% at 98.25 USD/MT
• The March contract traded 41 times in 54 lots from 37 lots exchanged in the previous session.
• The contract opened at PLN431/MWh – the low for the day – before steadily climbing to a daily high of PLN445/MWh at the end of the session.
• Average temperatures in Warsaw were revised up over 21-25 February by as much as 2C from the previous day. Average temps are still expected to flip above the norm on 24 February and reach as high as 5.5C on 4 March.
• Unplanned works at the 497MW Zeran 2 unit that began on 18 February are still going on until 21 February, due to an “emergency shutdown”, according to Remit remarks.
• And the 1.07GW unit 11 at the Kozienice 2 power plant will be curtailed by 981MW unexpectedly due to minor repairs until 23 February. The unit had been previously planned to be curtailed by just 150MW over 19-20 February.
• Additionally, the unplanned outage at Poland’s 910MW Jaworzno 2 coal plant has been extended to 23 February, with unit curtailed by 424MW.
• Closer in, the day-ahead dropped to a fresh weekly low at PLN438.87/MWh for Friday delivery from PLN471.31/MWh for Thursday as wind is expected at 5.11GW tomorrow from 1.46GW today.

• Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 53% load factor, or 4.95GW on 22 February – which could drop prices from the previous session coupled with lower demand.