POWER: Poland’s Jan Continues Down, Week Ahead Rises on Low Wind, Temps
Poland’s Jan 25 power contract continued downward to settle at its lowest price since 15 Nov to track losses in emissions and EU coal, while the week-ahead diverged amid low wind estimated for most days next week and temps in Warsaw cooling on the week.
- Poland Jan25 baseload power settled at PLN474/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN478/MWh on 4 Dec, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE. The contract settled just above the price on 15 Nov at PLN471.60/MWh.
- EUA DEC 24 down 1.1% at 67.12 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal JAN 25 down 1.7% at 112.75 USD/MT
- On the near curve, Poland’s week-ahead (week 50) settled at PLN579.90/MWh, up from PLN564.20/MWh in the previous session on 4 Dec. The product just settled below its all-time high of PLN580.10/MWh on 3 Dec.
- Wind output in Poland is expected between 6-56% load factors over 9-13 Dec (Mon-Fri), with wind lowest over 11-12 Dec at just 6-7% load factors. Wind will also be relatively weak over 10-13 Dec at between 19-20% load factors.
- And average temperatures in Warsaw are expected to be between minus 2.93C and 2.35C over 9-13 Dec compared to between 2C and 4.9C over 2-6 December – likely lifting heating demand on the week.
- The Jan 25 contract traded 24 times in 27 lots from 21 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- The week 50 contract traded 27 times in 68 lots from 22 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- Jan opened at PLN476/MWh before rising to PLN477/MWh- the high for the day -and dropping to a daily low of PLN474/MWh towards the end of the session.
- Week 50 opened at PLN578/MWh and rose to as high as PLN581/MWh before falling to PLN580/MWh towards the end of the session.
- Closer in, the day-ahead declined sharply to PLN471.30/MWh for Friday delivery from PLN715.12/MWh for Thursday amid wind expected to rise to 4.49GW from 0.942GW today.
Looking slightly ahead, wind is expected at 2.34GW on 7 December, but with demand averaging 18.15GW on 7 December compared to around 19.8GW on 6 December – spot prices could still be weighed down.
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