POLAND: PM Tusk Confirms Poland Requested To Invoke NATO Article 4
Speaking in parliament, Prime Minister Donald Tusk says the military detected and tracked 19 violations of the airspace overnight. Three, perhaps four drones were shot down (could have been more, but the number is yet to be confirmed) and the last drone was downed at 05:45BST/06:45CEST.
- Tusk says that the drones for the first time during the Russo-Ukrainian war crossed the border from the territory of Belarus rather than Ukraine. This suggests a deliberate incursion rather than an error or minimal provocation.
- The PM confirms that Poland has formally asked NATO to invoke Article 4 and launch consultations between allies. The decision was preceded by Tusk's talks with President Karol Nawrocki before they reached this joint decision.
- Tusk says that Article 4 is only a prelude to a deeper cooperation between NATO allies and Poland will ask for an increased support amid 'the war that Russia declared to the whole free world'.
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MNI: ITALY JULY FINAL HICP 1.7% Y/Y
- MNI: ITALY JULY FINAL HICP 1.7% Y/Y
- ITALY JULY FINAL HICP -1.0% M/M
BONDS: Rally Extends
As noted in our gilt comment, a pullback from session highs in wider global equity index futures is helping underpin the early rally in bonds at this stage, although TY, Bund & gilt futures remain within the ranges in play over the past couple of sessions.
- Other supportive factors include:
- Some focus on the potential deflationary impact surrounding this week’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. However, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has pushed back against the idea of land concessions in any peace deal with Russia, seemingly leaving the two sides very much at odds when it comes to pre-requisites surrounding any ceasefire agreement.
- A favourable cash flow backdrop for EGBs on the week (issuance pares back, while notable redemptions and coupon payments are noted, see earlier bullets and our weekly EGB issuance document for greater details).
- Another particularly soft UK KPMG-REC report on jobs ahead of tomorrow’s official labour market report from the ONS.
- Core global bond curves bull flatten, EGB spreads to Bunds little changed.
GILTS: Bull Flattening As Bonds Rally & REC Jobs Report Remains Soft
Gilts rally alongside global peers, with equity indices away from highs and some focus on the potential deflationary impact surrounding this week’s Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska.
- A reminder that Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has pushed back against the idea of land concessions in any peace deal with Russia, seemingly leaving the two sides very much at odds when it comes to pre-requisites surrounding any ceasefire agreement.
- Gilts also benefit from the latest KPMG-REC report on jobs, which pointed to an ongoing slowing of the UK labour market, with wage growth seemingly restrained as businesses react to tax hikes.
- Futures rally to 92.37. Initial resistance of note located at the August 5 high (92.84). Bulls look to regain momentum after a close below the 20-day EMA/
- Yields 4-5bp lower, curve biased a little flatter.
- 2s and 10s move back into the lower half of the ranges witnessed since early June, 2s last 3.86%, 10s last 4.55%.
- 2s10s and 5s30s continue to trade around 70bp & 140bp, respectively.
- Dovish extension in GBP STIRs given the rally in the long end. SONIA futures showing flat to +4.0, BoE-dated OIS pricing 18bp of easing through year-end and 28bp through February (vs. 17bp & 27bp ahead of the gilt open).
- Little of note on the UK calendar today, with tomorrow’s labour market report headlining the weekly schedule (expect our full preview of that release later today).
