HEALTHCARE: Pharma: Transfer Pricing
Two good pieces by Brad Setser at the Council on Foreign Relations – see links
• The issue for Pharma is not where factories are located but where the Intellectual Property rights reside
• Large international companies use transfer pricing to avoid paying tax on US sales. It is even possible to report losses on US sales to earn a tax rebate.
• When asked “who is most affected?”, it’s hard to say. The fact is the entire industry seeks to optimise tax treatment by transferring profit abroad.
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SWEDEN: Consumption Falls In Jan, Weak Sentiment Adds Downside Risks For Q1
This morning’s January activity data has not been a material driver of upside in SEK crosses intraday. More weight will be placed on the firmer-than-expected Norwegian February CPI report (for NOKSEK) and the pullback in European equities (for EURSEK). However, the dip in household consumption will be worth monitoring in the months ahead. When taken alongside the weak February Economic Tendency Indicator consumer confidence reading, there are some downside risks to Q1 consumption after a solid Q4.
- Household consumption (which we consider the most important component of the monthly release), fell 0.7% M/M (vs +0.1% prior). On a 3m/3m basis, consumption was 0.6%, so momentum is not yet as weak as the monthly figure suggests.
- Private sector production fell 0.8% M/M, but this followed two solid prints in the month prior. Annual growth was 1.9% (vs 2.5% prior). An uptick in services production was outweighed by sharp falls in industry and construction.
- Meanwhile, industrial orders rose 2.0% M/M and 16.7% Y/Y (vs 5.8% prior), driven by the intermediate goods industry.
- The monthly GDP indicator fell 0.5% M/M (vs +0.5% prior), though 3m/3m growth actually ticked up to 0.9% (vs 0.7% prior). We don’t place too much weight on the GDP indicator, which is often heavily revised. In the latest data, there were upward revisions in every month going back to August 2024 (Dec ’24 index was revised to 126.7 vs 125.7 initial, which is why January’s 126.1 was a negative sequential print).
EURIBOR: FIX - 10/03/25
Source: EMMI/Bloomberg
- EUR001W 2.5620 0.0010
- EUR001M 2.4710 0.0150
- EUR003M 2.5470 0.0180
- EUR006M 2.3900 -0.0180
- EUR012M 2.4610 -0.0200
