IRAN: Persian Gulf Strait Authority Issues News Violations List

In a thinner week ahead for macro data (including Housing Starts, flash PMIs, and the first August regional Fed manufacturing surveys), the minutes to the July FOMC meeting (Wednesday) could offer a gauge of the Committee's appetite for a rate hike at the time, which had been around 30% priced by markets going into the decision. 

• We know that 3 of the 12 current FOMC voters (regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissented in favor of a 25bp raise, but we wonder how many non-voters would have joined them or were on the fence.
• In the usual exercise of deciphering quantitative words used in the minutes, was it - in rising order of participants - "several", "some", or "many", compared with just "a few" who saw a case for a hike in the June minutes?
• Of course a majority will have been patient enough to wait until at least the September meeting and that's the message we expect to see conveyed in the minutes, and the discussion will look a bit stale on that front given soft July nonfarm payroll and CPI data in the interim. Nonetheless, any guidance as to the FOMC's reaction function (something Chair Warsh has been reluctant to provide) on a rate hike trigger would be welcomed.
• One additional discussion we'll be looking for regards reserve management purchase policy, given the decision to refrain from making buys in the subsequent August-September window for the first time since launching RMPs in December 2025.
• We'll have our usual Minutes preview with a wrap of inter-meeting Fed speak out early next week.

Date                 ET        Impact Event

17 Aug              0830     **         Empire State Manufacturing Survey

17 Aug              1000     **         NAHB Home Builder Index

17 Aug              1600     **         TICS

18 Aug              0815     ***        Weekly ADP Employment Report

18 Aug              0830     ***        Housing Starts

18 Aug              0830     **         Import/Export Price Index

18 Aug              0855     **         Redbook Retail Sales Index

18 Aug              0915     ***        Industrial Production

18 Aug              1000     **         NAR Pending Home Sales

19 Aug              0700     **         MBA Weekly Applications Index

19 Aug             1400     ***        FOMC Minutes

20 Aug              0830     ***        Jobless Claims

20 Aug              0830     **         Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

21 Aug             0945     ***        S&P Global Flash PMI

Politico reports: "A senior White House official, granted anonymity to share details of the negotiating process, described the situation between the two countries as “static” ahead of the Monday ceasefire expiration deadline. The official had not heard of any forthcoming extension as of Friday afternoon." “It doesn't matter how close or how far we are,” the official said. “What matters is if Iran wants to come to the table and agree to a deal. Right now, they haven't done that.” 

Friday's U.S. rates/bond options flow included:

• SFRQ6 98.18c, traded 3.25 in 3k.
• SFRQ6 96.06/96.12/9618/9625c condor, traded 3.5 in 1.5k.
• SFRU6 96.18/96.00ps 1x2 with 96.12/96.00ps 1x2 strip. Traded 3 in 4.5k.
• SFRV6 95.18/96.00/96.18c fly, traded 3.5 in 2.5k.
• SFRV6 96.12/96.25/96.37c fly vs 95.93/95.81ps, bought the fly for 1.5 in 2k
• SFRV6 96.12/96.18/96.25c ladder, bought for flat in 10k total
• SFRV6/Z6 96.25/96.62cs spread, bought the Dec for 2.5 in 10k
• SFRV6 96.31/96.43cs, bought for 0.75 in 10k
• SFRZ6 96.31/96.43cs, traded 1.25 in 9.5k.
• SFRZ6 96.3125/4375 call spread 6K blocked at 1.25 vs. 96.010 (1% delta),  looks like a buyer of the call spread. Block
• SFRM7 98.750 calls paper paid 1.5 on ~7K, balance of a 10K left with that level taken bid over.
• SFRM7 98.750 calls 4.5K given at 1.5, 15K trades there all day.
• 0QQ6 95.93/96.06 vs 3QQ6 96.00/96.12cs spread, sold the 1yr at 7.25 in 2.5k
• 2QQ6 96.00/96.25/96.50c fly, traded 1.5 in 3k.