EGBS: Periphery Outperforms As Oil Ticks Lower

• RES 4: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 3: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4248 High Jun 24, 25 and 30 and the bull trigger  
• RES 1: 1.4190 High Jul 9  
• PRICE: 1.4116 @ 08:17 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.4032/4003 50-day EMA / Low Jul 20
• SUP 2: 1.3981 38.2% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 1.3951 Low Jun 15
• SUP 4: 1.3899 50.0% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle 

The USDCAD trend structure remains bullish and the bear cycle since Jun 24 is considered corrective. Attention is on the next important support at 1.4032, the 50-day EMA. The average has been pierced, however, it remains intact and the latest recovery is encouraging for bulls. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is at 1.4248, the Jun 24, 25 and 30 high.

Latest source reporting from Bloomberg:

"German officials are working behind the scenes to identify Chinese economic vulnerabilities that they could exploit if the European Union finds itself in a trade war with the world’s second-largest economy."

"The German government is informally mapping China’s weaknesses by analyzing trade flows, supply chains and company-level data, according to people familiar with the matter. The exercise is aimed at identifying where China remains dependent on German and European technology, specialized components and industrial know-how — and where Beijing could face pressure in a potential economic confrontation"

• RES 4: 0.7120 61.8% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg 
• RES 3: 0.7088 High Jun 15  
• RES 2: 0.7071 50.0% retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.7027 High Jul 21  
• PRICE: 0.6973 @ 08:12 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 0.6962 Low Jul 23 
• SUP 2: 0.6907 Low Jul 8
• SUP 3: 0.6865 Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6757 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 ‘25 - May 6 bull cyle

AUDUSD is in consolidation mode and is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. A bear cycle remains intact and - for now - the recent climb is considered corrective. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.7007. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger S/T bounce and signal scope for a continued retracement of the May 6 - Jun 30 bear leg. Key support and the bear trigger is 0.6865, the Jun 30 low. A breach would resume the downtrend.