JAPAN: Oppo. Ldr Rules Out No Confidence Motion Against Ishiba Cabinet
Jun-19 09:32
Leader of the main opposition centre-left Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) Yoshihiko Noda has ruled out submitting a motion of no confidence in the cabinet of PM Shigeru Ishiba during the current Diet session. There had been speculation that Noda could bring a no confidence motion against Ishiba's minority gov't that could have sparked a dissolution of the House of Representatives and a snap general election or the resignation of the gov't en masse.
- Kyodo News reports, "After talks with Noda, Seiji Maehara, co-head of the opposition Japan Innovation Party, quoted him as saying a political vacuum should be avoided amid concerns over higher U.S. tariffs and rising tensions in the Middle East."
- The Ishiba gov't is already facing a difficult electoral slate over the weeks ahead. On Sunday, 22 June, Tokyo holds elections to its Metropolitan Assembly. This is set to be followed on 20 July (likely but not confirmed) by elections to the upper house of the National Diet, the House of Councillors. Poor performances by Ishiba's conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in either or both of these could see a challenge to the PM's position from within the party.
- Latest opinion polling shows approval of Ishiba's cabinet increasing in June for the first time in four months as new Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi's measures seeking to tackle high rice prices (releasing gov't stockpiles) have begun to kick in. The approval rating of 27.0% remains low overall, though, and Ishiba remains at risk from both internal and external confidence motions in the months ahead.
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FOREX: AUD Slips as RBA Considered Jumbo Rate Cut
May-20 09:28
- AUD is slipping against all others in G10 following the RBA rate cut to 3.85%. While the rate cut itself was expected, Bullock's more assertive language on easing ahead has pressured the front-end of the curve. The RBA disclosed that a 'jumbo' rate cut of 50bps was discussed - signaling the bank's approach to inflation is less restrictive than expected. As a result, AUD/USD has retreated away from any test of the 200-dma of 0.6452, reverting to the lower-end of the recent range in the pair.
- An uptick in oil prices has helped support commodity-tied currencies. Comments from Iran's Khamenei talked down the prospects of progress with the US in nuclear negotiations. Khamenei stated he does not believe talks with the US will yield any results - supporting Brent crude to briefly trade back to yesterday's highs. As a result, NOK is outperforming most others in G10.
- Broad EUR and GBP strength that played out across Monday has faded somewhat, however GBP/USD remains well toward the upper-end of the week's range. GBP/USD holds above 1.3350, but is yet to make any material challenge on the weekly high of 1.3404.
- Canadian CPI for April is the data highlight Tuesday, at which markets look for Y/Y CPI to slow to 1.6% from 2.3% previously. The Atlanta Fed's financial markets conference continues, while appearances are also due from Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem and Kugler. Knot & Cipollone represent the ECB.
BONDS: Long-end Gilts Outperform Bunds Despite 30-year Syndi
May-20 09:25
German and UK yields are biased lower this morning, with the German curve lightly bull steepening and the Gilt curve bull flattening. Those dynamics come despite today’s syndicated launch of the new 5.375% Jan-56 gilt. Books are now closed and final terms have been set for the syndication, with the GBP4bln size smaller than MNI's expectations.
- The 10-year Gilt/Bund spread has tightened 2bps to 205.5bps this morning, but there hasn’t been an overt driver of the UK outperformance.
- The reaction to UK Chief Economist Pill’s opening remarks was relatively contained. Although Pill thinks the MPC started easing too early, he viewed May as the appropriate moment for a skip and seems to still broadly support quarterly cuts going forward.
- In the EGB space, Germany will sell green Bunds at 1030BST while Finland will issue RFGBs at 1100BST.
- Bund futures are +4 ticks at 130.58, off earlier session highs of 130.75. Gilt futures are +30 at 91.80, from a high of 91.91.
- Following a record high merchandise trade surplus ahead of US Liberation Day, the Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account surplus rose to E50.9bln in March (vs an upwardly revised E40.6bln prior). German April PPI was weaker-than-expected, but more interest will be in the flash Eurozone May consumer confidence reading at 1500BST.
- In the UK, focus remains on tomorrow’s April CPI report. MNI’s preview will be released later this morning.
GILT SYNDICATION: 5.375% Jan-56 gilt: Final terms
May-20 09:21
- Size: GBP4.0bln (smaller than MNI expected - that's the average size in the DMO's funding plan with no upsizing)
- Books closed in excess of GBP74bln pre-rec (inc JLM interest of GBP3.75bln)
- Spread set: 4.25% Dec-55 gilt (GB00BT7J0241) + 1.75bp (guidance was 1.75bp/2.25bp)
- ISIN: GB00BT7J0241
- JLMs: BNP Paribas, BofA Securities, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs International Bank (B&D / DM) and Santander
- Settlement: 21 May 2025 (T+1)
- Maturity: 31 January 2056
- Coupon: 5.375%. Short first
- Timing: Allocations to follow
From market source / MNI colour
