GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt opening calls, range 97.77/97.83
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GILTS: Opening Call
Some desks look for futures to open around the 98.90 mark with Bund futures still above levels seen at the time of Friday’s gilt close. The pullback from highs in Bund futures and building expectations for fiscal easing in the Spring Budget cloud this a little though.
AUDUSD TECHS: Watching Support
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
- RES 1: 0.6637 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6589 @ 07:52 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 0.6526/25 Low Dec 7 and key support / Low Jan 17
- SUP 2: 0.6500 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 3: 0.6453 Low Nov 17
- SUP 4: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
AUDUSD maintains a softer tone following last week’s bearish price action and recent gains are considered corrective. The pair last week breached a trendline drawn from the late October low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper correction. Attention is on 0.6526, the Dec 7 low and the next key support. A clear break would open 0.6500, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is at 0.6667, the 50-day EMA.
STIR: SONIA Futures Little Changed to A touch Softer, BoE Pricing Essentially Flat
SONIA futures come under some pressure as Bunds pull back from Asia-Pac highs, even though the latter sits above levels seen at the time of Friday’s SONIA settlement window.
- That leaves SONIA futures running little changed to 3.5 softer through the blues, with the reds under the most pressure.
- BoE-dated OIS is little changed across ’24 MPC contracts, showing ~105bp of cuts through the year.
- Weekend UK news flow has centred on fiscal headroom for Chancellor Hunt (with expectations building re: tax cuts/fiscal easing in the Budget), in addition to continued pre-election political posturing.
- Wednesday's flash PMI releases present the headline round of domestic economic data this week, with little of note scheduled for release today.
| BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
| Feb-24 | 5.201 | +1.2 |
| Mar-24 | 5.177 | -1.1 |
| May-24 | 5.061 | -12.8 |
| Jun-24 | 4.894 | -29.5 |
| Aug-24 | 4.672 | -51.6 |
| Sep-24 | 4.495 | -69.4 |
| Nov-24 | 4.289 | -90.0 |
| Dec-24 | 4.142 | -104.6 |
