GILTS: Opening calls

• RES 4: 1.4167 2.0% 10-dma envelope  
• RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13 and a key M/T resistance  
• RES 1: 1.3959 High Nov 1
• PRICE: 1.3889 @ 07:55 GMT Nov 5
• SUP 1: 1.3875/3822 Low Nov 04 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3727 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 1.3611 Low Oct 8 
• SUP 4: 1.3567 Low Oct 7

The USDCAD trend outlook is bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s gains resulted in a print above 1.3946, the Aug 5 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the uptrend and open 1.3977, the Oct 13 high and a key medium-term resistance point. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3822, the 20-day EMA. The latest pullback is considered corrective. 

Modest hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs, with core global bonds a little weaker than levels that prevailed at yesterday’s SONIA settlement window.

• BoE-dated OIS flat to 2bp less hawkish vs. yesterday’s closing levels, showing 22bp of cuts for November, 29.5bp of easing through year-end, 56bp of cuts through March and 74bp of easing through June.
• SONIA futures -0.25 to -4.5.
• The BoE will issue its latest decision on Thursday, with only one sell-side name that we have seen calling for no change in Bank Rate.
• The 54 names that have submitted to the BBG survey look for a 25bp cut.
• Fiscal feedthrough is set to become more of an issue beyond this week’s meeting.
• Our policy team has noted that the Bank looks set to factor elements of the government's Budget into the updated economic projections it will provide this week, substantially pushing up the outlook for near-term growth and inflation.
• Final services & composite PMI data due today.
• Eyes also on spill over from any potential last minute pre-U.S. election positioning.

• MNI: FRANCE SEP INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION -0.9% M/M, -0.6% Y/Y
• FRANCE SEP MANUFACTURING OUTPUT -0.8% M/M, -0.9% Y/Y