GREECE T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
Mar-01 13:55
Greece has announced it will sell E625mln of the new 52-week Mar 7, 2025 GTB at its auction next Wednesday (Mar 6).
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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Coupon Size Increases And Bill Trajectory As Expected
Jan-31 13:51
Some initial takeaways from today's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (Treasury link here):
- Treasury's coupon upsizing for the upcoming quarter was exactly as MNI (and consensus) had anticipated, as was the unchanged guidance (does not anticipate needing to make any further increases...for at least the next several quarters).
- A modest surprise for some observers that they aren't launching buybacks immediately, but certainly not a major surprise as they will be coming "later this year" after tests in April with an announcement coming in May.
- On bills, the broad strokes seem to be as expected: "Given current fiscal forecasts, Treasury expects to maintain bill auction sizes at current levels into late-March. Treasury anticipates that this will likely result in a $300-350 billion net increase to privately-held supply over the next two months. By late-March or early-April, Treasury anticipates modestly reducing short-dated bill auction sizes going into the tax filing season. These reductions will likely lead to a $100-150 billion net reduction to privately-held supply during the month of April. "
US TSY FUTURES: Steady Tsy Quarterly Refunding Annc React
Jan-31 13:38
- Fast two-way again, Tsy futures extend highs (TYH4 112-03.5 +15) after the Tsy Quarterly Refunding announced no supply increases for several quarter. Meanwhile, Employment Cost Index comes out at 0.9% vs. 1.0% est.
- Futures retrace half the move on decent two-way volumes, trades 111-29.5 last -- after flirting with Initial technical resistance above at 112-02/112-26+ (Intraday high / High Jan 12). 10Y yield 4.0051% (-.0268). Curves steeper: 2s10s +1.654 at -28.813.
- Next up: MNI Chicago PMI at 0945ET followed by FOMC rate annc at 1400ET and press conference 30 minutes later.
CANADA DATA: Canada Fertility Rate Falls To Lowest In A Century
Jan-31 13:35
- Statistics Canada says Wednesday: "The total fertility rate (TFR) observed in Canada in 2022 (1.33 children per woman) is the lowest recorded over more than a century of data. Although the downward trend began in 2009, it accelerated in 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The decrease became even more pronounced in 2022."
- "The decline in the TFR observed in Canada from 2021 to 2022 (-7.4%) was the largest since 1971-1972 (-7.6%), at the height of the baby bust that followed the 1946-1965 baby boom, and three years after the contraceptive pill and therapeutic abortion were decriminalized by Bill C-150, passed in 1969."
- Other nations have also seen volatility in fertility numbers through the pandemic, StatsCan says.
- Govt has brought in national daycare program in recent years to help make raising children more affordable. Population growth is still rising the fastest in decades on immigration, though that's being scaled back amid complaints about housing shortages. BOC has said immigration will lift the economy's potential output but in short term may add some housing inflation pressure.
