BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

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• President Donald Trump delivered remarks alongside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte this morning, before attending a working session with NATO leaders. Trump was scheduled to meet bilaterally with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 07:30 ET 12:30 BST, and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa at 08:30 ET 13:30 BST. Trump will hold a closely watched press conference at 11:15 ET 16:15 BST.
• Trump repeated criticisms of Europe at the NATO summit, torpedoing optimism that the summit could be a forum for repairing the transatlantic relationship. Trump instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “cut off all trade with Spain," threatened to withdraw troops from Europe, and revisited the question of US sovereignty over Greenland.
• Trump signalled that he intends to relax sanctions on Turkey to facilitate the sale of advanced F-35 warplanes to Ankara.
• Trump said the Ukraine war "doesn't affect us" ahead of a bilateral meeting with Zelenskyy.
• Trump said he believes the preliminary truce with Iran is “over” after a flare-up of hostilities in the Gulf.  
• Supreme Court Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Elena Kagan will testify to Congress on July 14.
• Senator Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) claimed Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is alert and recovering, amid speculation over his condition.
• Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson has filed paperwork to replace Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee for the Maine Senate race.
• Poll of the Day: Trump continues to perform poorly with political independents.

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF

Initial risk reprieve linked to RTRS sources noting that “Trump did not repeat termination of interim deal with Iran during NATO summit” moderates, with the market generally willing to look through the headline in favour of Trump’s prior public comments re: the MOU being “over”.

• Core global FI curves hold the bulk of the bear flattening seen since oil started to extend higher in late NY trade on Tuesday, with the latter consolidating most of its rally.

As MNI noted was a possible scenario on 7 July (see UK: Farage Strong Favourite For Re-Election, Focus On Opposition's Actions (2/2)), the main political parties have each announced they will boycott any snap by-election called by right-wing populist Reform UK leader Nigel Farage in his Clacton constituency. In a combative video statement on 7 July, Farage railed against the media and political opponents, and said he was calling the by-election as a chance for voters in Clacton to push back against "the establishment." It comes amid intense scrutiny of Farage's personal finances, with the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner conducting an investigation. This will be put on hold once Farage is no longer an MP, but would resume should he win re-election. 

• With the centre-left Labour Party, centre-right Conservatives, centrist Liberal Democrats, left-wing populist Greens, and far-right Restore Britain all saying they will not run in this by-election, Farage will be left facing any independents and perennial by-election novelty candidate, 'Count Binface'. Farage has an 86% implied probability of winning according to predictions market Smarkets.
• The process of resigning and triggering a by-election in the UK is antiquated and complicated. An MP cannot simply resign. Instead, they must apply for a 'position of profit under the Crown', the'Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds or of the Manor of Northstead. These are granted by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and this is usually viewed as a formality.