EU-BOND AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

• USDZAR is trading lower, as it extends the reversal from last week’s 19.9328 high (Apr 9). For now, a move down appears corrective and the support levels to watch are; 18.8496, the 20-day EMA, and 18.6089, the 50-day EMA. A break below the 50-day EMA would undermine the bull theme. A reversal higher would refocus attention on 19.9328 where a break would resume the uptrend.
• The path of least resistance in USDTRY is unchanged and remains up. It is difficult to determine upside price projections given the nature of the long-term trend, however, a retest of the 40.00 handle and the Mar 19 high just above 41.00, is likely near-term. A reliable trend support lies at 37.6973, the 20-day EMA.

SONIA FIX - Source: BBG/ICE

• 1M 4.41050 -0.0142
• 3M 4.27190 0.0076
• 6M 4.14700 0.0326
• 12M 3.97480 0.0667

• Fed Funds implied rates are little changed for meetings out to July but after that increasingly lower on the day with latest announcements of tariff exemptions for electronic items potentially short-lived.
• The Dec’25 implied rate is 6bp lower from Friday’s close.
• Further out the curve, the SOFR terminal implied yield is 8bp lower at 3.32%, pulling back having fully retraced a large drop seen after “Liberation Day” tariffs.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 6.5bp May, 22.5bp Jun, 41bp Jul and 84bp Dec.
• NY Fed consumer inflation expectations will again be of more note than normal after the continued ramping higher in the U.Mich equivalent.
• Focus is also likely on Fed Gov. Waller (permanent voter) speaking on the economic outlook at 1300ET (text and Q&A). It’s his first comments since last week's "pause" and various Treasury / swap market dislocations.
• He talked on balance sheet matters back on Mar 21 to explain his dissent at the Mar 18-19 meeting (balance sheet caution has gone too far, with no evidence reserves nearing an ample level). He had earlier in March said there was nothing wrong with the forecast of two rate cuts this year in a rowing back of particularly dovish comments from January when he noted potential for three or four cuts this year.